I study chart analysis, every day. Open salt of trading view, open the "accumulation / distribution", notice the irregularity.
As the price is going down, accumulation is increasing, My analysis concluded that there is a group or a person accumulating a ton of salt for some reason. People see this coming. By this I mean the imminent pump.
Happy trading! Source (book):A Complete Guide To Volume Price Analysis
The Book of Why by Judea Pearl
"Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality--the study of cause and effect--on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.
yeah "Dark Pools" goes into detail about how outdated wall street has been, basically the entire time it has existed. Technology has been dragging it kicking and screaming into modernity. and when wall streeters finally starts to catch up they corrupt the fuck out of everything to enrich themselves.
Amazon Link to Ernie's book for those interested
I've been learning the indicators one at a time. The thesis is, traders watch these levels to time trades. 🤷♂️
This book is the 'bible' but I haven't bothered to read it.
https://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Financial-Markets-Comprehensive/dp/0735200661
I'm sure a youtube search will find any number of results.
For learning, honestly, I just look at charts that people make who have been doing this for awhile and learn from them. I like Patrick Ceresna a lot.
My approach is - look at a chart and draw some straight lines. This is a bit of an artform but starts to become easier once you look at charts a lot. Trend lines should touch the bottom of at least three candles (the fat part). Also, horizontal lines for historical support/resistances.
EMA - I'm looking at 20D, 50D, 100D, 200D and seeing which one is most significant. Basically - which EMA do the candles touch most often? Is it support (they bounce off and go up) or resistance (they touch it then go down)?
The "Pivots Traditional" can be useful but eh. VWAP and bollinger bands seem useful but I don't totally get how to set them up. Fib retracements I get but seems pretty "hocus pocus". MACD seems kinda useless to me for what I do. I don't understand why anyone cares about Elliot waves.
Most of the more 'advanced TA' is pretty hocus-pocus to me.
Thanks! I can't get too specific about my job, because there aren't many of us, but I'm a mathematician. Been working on some new ideas, and I hope to post more soon.
I don't know of any books that cover my work, but my favorite options book is: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1119583519/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_glt_fabc_8MS3GVR412KKEBB2616P
Then anything by Ernest Chan for developing algorithms for trading. Good luck, and lmk if you ever have any questions or want to chat!
America needs a microtransaction tax. Like .0001% per trade. There are parasitic High Frequency Traders that sit on the wire, intercept a trade, and then siphon a bit off the margin. They offer no value and just drain the market. A microtransaction would put the parasites out of business. American treasure Michael Lewis wrote about these parasites in his book Flash Boys.
Here is the bible for technical analysis! Only book you will ever need!
I haven't found a book with the stuff from my post yet, but I did just read this book and thought it was really good for turning any alpha into a profitable trading strategy.
I recommend the book Cryptoassets. It’s a bit dated since it came out in 2017. But it covers all the fundamentals about cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. Dives in specifics such as the differences between utility tokens, smart contracts, ledger blocks. Also talks about centralized and secret slide networks / private and public block chains. I’ve had a chance to meet the authors in person and pick their brains, very knowledgeable guys. My recommendation.
https://www.amazon.com/Cryptoassets-Innovative-Investors-Bitcoin-Beyond/dp/1260026671
If you’re interested in learning more about technical analysis, the best book by far is <em>Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets</em> by John Murphy. It is considered the bible of technical analysis.
I read the book "Dark Pools" a few years ago.
How the SEC has not made this illegal is a mystery.
https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Pools-Machine-Traders-Rigging/dp/0307887189
That's not how causality works.
Causal modelling is a whole rabbit hole. Check out this book for an intro: Judea Pearl - The Book of Why
Read/Listen to Flash Boys by Michael Lewis (the same author of The Big Short, Moneyball, etc.). It's all about this, only in an engaging narrative form vs this report style. Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt: Lewis, Michael: 9780393351590: Amazon.com: Books
For anyone wondering what "only non-rigged exchange" means, and why IEX is the only one such exchange, read/listen to Michael Lewis' book Flash Boys: Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt: Lewis, Michael: 9780393351590: Amazon.com: Books
Gotcha, misread your statement.
From the other comments; selecting the lucky winner from multiple backtests is usually overfitting (even if you didn't use ML to overfit, you may have unconsciously overfit by "manually" fine-tuning parameters by hand, like "1.25 ATRs is better than 1.5" etc).
Algorithmic Trading by Ernest Chan has a good, approachable example (1.1) of hypothesis testing, where you run a Monte Carlo of sorts to understand how your strategy would have performed under different random samplings of market conditions, ordering of the trades, different returns, etc so as to see if the strategy is actually significant and can handle "what could have happened" or just "got lucky". Works best if your strategy has sufficiently high # of trades, ideally fixed or similar holding times (so triple barrier model is great), and better yet consistent entry criteria like buy on open, sell on close.
That might be something to look into.
I just started reading this one. Looks promising. I’ll leave full Amazon link without shortening.
if you have some time, I recommend reviewing this over the holidays - it's good to have this side-by-side with the Intelligent Investor --- https://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Financial-Markets-Comprehensive/dp/0735200661/ref=sr\_1\_1?keywords=murphy+technical+analysis&qid=1669050829&s=books&sr=1-1
https://www.amazon.com/Complete-Guide-Price-Analysis/dp/1491249390#customerReviews
Bottom is probably in and a good time to jump in. Just start with small amounts, never risk more than you can lose in a single trade. Good luck!
realdaytrading is a great sub too.
This isn't uncommon at all, it has run out of buyers. Flip your idea, things could be looking a bit tough because there isn't any buying volume. Retail doesn't have infinite liquidity. The volume over the past few weeks has coincided with hype and may have been caused by FOMO.
Also, you might find some good info in this book: https://www.amazon.com/Complete-Guide-Price-Analysis/dp/1491249390/
I thought you're much more used to big drawdowns than I am. Last year I kept my conviction and emerged winning from a 40% drawdown, with very high volatility all the way up. This year I've had about 2/3 of my port on PBT calls, and that got cut in half in a day. I went on a tilt and I'm not fully recovered... I'm still below that high even though I passed it again later for exactly three days before getting smacked again with a huge drawdown. I think the difference for me was that last year the drawdown amounted to a sum I could make back with salary, whereas now I'm playing for sums that will take me a long time to accumulate with work. Different mindset. The mental game is an important subject that we rarely discuss.
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This is a part of my TA journey. Those are the steps so far:
I have another recommendation after you finish this one. The presentation is a bit tinfoil-y, but think about it as a mental model and the rest will make sense.
I'd recommend reading some basic material like Investing for Dummies so you at least know what people are talking about and why one choice might be better than others.
Then choose a financial advisor that is going to work for your situation.
Probably talking about Flash Boys by Michael Lewis https://www.amazon.com/Flash-Boys-Wall-Street-Revolt/dp/0393351599 a quick interesting read about HFT.
It's crazy that anyone thinks a stock market floor full of people shouting still exists or that any of it is centralized. I highly recommend reading Flash Boys.