The option chain is an approximation to the probability distribution function of the share price. Quants do this all the time to determine how to allocate their purchases.
There is a good book that explains (Amazon) there is also a YouTube video of a lecture the author gave at MIT. It is math heavy.
The approximation is only as good as the option chain. Something with high liquidity and small steps between strikes (such SPY) is desirable.
You could apply to MMAT but the error bars will be larger. I am trying to infer what MMs think the dividend will be priced from the option chain. I will share that math once I have time