This book is well researched and has a more thorough discussion about the potential consequences of climate change than this subreddit will give you. Much of his discussion is based on primary science and US Dept. of Defense reports. Read it and decide for yourself how much of a doomer you should be.
https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Wars-Fight-Survival-Overheats/dp/1851688145
This book does a good job speculating, based on climate science and geopolitics (the author is a military historian first and foremost, and a significant part of the narrative comes for US military reports on climate change).
https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Wars-Fight-Survival-Overheats/dp/1851688145
The two of you should do a book club with this book
https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Wars-Fight-Survival-Overheats/dp/1851688145
It starts with a really good, sourced review of the state of climate change. It's an enthralling read (not dry), and most of the book is based on interviews with US military leaders and military reports on climate change. Hearing our military leaders across the board say that it's the number one threat we face is eye-opening. His thought exercise about what the future will bring is disturbing.
Been reading Gwynne Dyer's Climate Wars lately, and it explains in more detail what Neil was talking about -- major refugee crisis, serious food shortages, even numerous major conflicts / war, as people fight for arable land. It's kind of frightening when you think about all the ripple effects this could have.
You can't just take warming of 10C and apply it to daily temps. The extremes (daily max temps, heat waves, storm events, etc.) will be much,much higher than an average temperature would indicate.
As an example, the difference in average global temps between the last glacial/ice age maximum and today is about 5C.
At the high-end (currently likely) climate change scenarios we're looking at 4-6C warming by the end of the century.
At that point I envision masses of humanity flocking towards to the north climates (northern Canada, Alaska, Scandanavia, Siberia) and fighting over what little resources remain. There just isn't enough land in the south. What are currently the breadbaskets of the world might be unliveable by that point- certainly crops will no longer be able to be raised there. The oceans may be functionally dead by that point (for food purposes), and the coastal environment will be highly variable, so I don't see a lot of future there. I imagine there will be out-of-control nuclear reactors in some of those environments- its hard to predict how widespread that disaster will be. One migratory pattern I do see are border walls everywhere, defended with capital force.
Perhaps pockets of people will find mountain refuges to exist in. That's about as optimistic as I can get.
Gwynne Dyer lays out some of the possible scenarios in his book Climate Wars. Its a good read.
> We should be mobilising
Yep. The only way we can likely get out of this is revolution.
There was a book that came out from a fantastic historian by the name of Gwynne Dyer called "Climate Wars" that you would probably be interested in. Some of you may know him from his mini series "War" that was on BBC/PBS many years ago, or his book "War: The Lethal Custom". I never did finish "Climate Wars" but I did happen to see one of his lectures about 9-10 years ago and it was great. I didn't see him give this specific lecture, but it was basically the same.
> genocide happening around the world seem all the more ridiculous
Ummmm.. I think the people being genocided might see that differently at the moment. But I see your point
Gwynne Dyer has also written some excellent stuff on climate change.
Estas dejando de lado algo muy importante: el cambio climatico y sus consecuencias.
De ese "top 10":
10: Australia - Los esta haciendo mierda el cambio climatico y se va a poner MUCHO peor de aca a 10-15 años.
9: Democratic Republic of Congo - Ya estan siendo explotados hasta el hartazgo para proveer los lujos del primer mundo.
8: Venezuela - Estan bajo un regimen actualmente y no piensan irse pronto.
7: The United States
6: Brazil - Ya estan en eso con el presidente anti ecologia que tienen.
5: Russia - Good luck with that.
4: India - Otro pais explotadisimo
3: Canada - Es una pais independiente y bastante mas organizado que nosotros.
2: Saudi Arabia - Entre el conflicto permanente y el cambio climatico a futuro cercano (geopolicamente hablando) tampoco es una opcion.
1: China - Justamente con quien estan en guerra comercial y quien produce el 97% de la demanda mundial de "tierras raras" con inmumerables usos en la tecnologia actual y de quien actualmente USA es dependiente...
Ahora, adivina a que pais que tiene estos recursos les prestaron plata para que mejoren la infraestructura, ~~abaraten la mano de obra~~ sean mas competitivos en el mercado laboral, tienen una educacion malisima que los hace incapaces de discernir cuando los estan cagando?
Sumale a eso que a pesar de todo el desastre climatico que se viene, latinoamerica (y en especial Argentina por su posicion geografica) se va a ver bastante favorecido en cuando a cultivos y crianza de ganado? El otro gran favorecido siendo Rusia.
"Invertir" en Argentina es un negocio mediano plazo (10-15 años) y que mejor que poder apretar a un pais con la deuda cuando la cosa se descalabre?
Te recomiendo Climate Wars
> Dwindling resources. Massive population shifts. Natural disasters. Any of the expected consequences of climate change could - as Gwynne Dyer argues in this galvanizing book - tip the world towards chaos and conflict. Based on exhaustive research and interviews with international experts, Climate Wars is an essential guide to the future of the planet
Para ver un poco "mas alla", y un detalle importante, desde este libro hasta ahora se han quedado cortos los pronosticos, asi que mucho de lo que dice "a 50 años", tomalo como a 10-15.