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Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis & a Review of the Evidence?
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4th Jun 2021
Please do share that link.
I ought to have included links for my own claims. Paul Meehl wrote his seminal work on the subject in 1954, based on a meta-analysis of 20 studies. It has since been massively replicated. See, for example, an updated meta-analysis, of 136 studies, in Meehl and Grove 1996.
Meehl argues, as does Dawes, that clinicians should excuse themselves from decisions in which an appropriate decision model is available, making exceptions only for exceedingly rare "broken leg" cases.
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