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Discerning Experts: The Practices of Scientific A… | - | - | 3.7/5.0 |
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Discerning Experts: The Practices of Scientific A… | - | - | 3.7/5.0 |
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https://www.amazon.com/Discerning-Experts-Scientific-Assessment-Environmental/dp/022660201X
...is a good place to start. The authors talk about there book here:
Feel free to Google, sorting by reasonable sources, of course. It's been freely acknowledged for a long time by most scientists in the Climate Change game that the IPCC is very, very conservative about their estimates, probably due to some combination of reasonable conservatism, the intricate entanglement of politics and science, and a strong minority view that the public must be shielded from Very Bad News for a variety of reasons, most prominent of which is the belief that extreme warnings will cause people to ignore the science altogether.
Not that the IPCC is especially bad; all climate change science outreach suffers from this. If you'd like to play along at home, the author (and former biologist) Peter Watts regularly reviews the latest literature and posts the results on the sidebar of his blog. At one point he was keeping score, understimate vs overestimate, but he quickly gave up the game. The former is an almost daily occurance, the latter as rare as hen's teeth.
Here's one example. David Wallace-Wells writes an article with the central point 'you don't know how fucked we really are and no on is telling you.'
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html
People scoff. Michael Mann pens an Op Ed: Doom Saying is as Bad as Denial.
A year later, Mann admits that the article, and the IPCC, undersells the science rather than oversells it.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/10/michael-mann-even-closer-climate-disaster-ipcc-predicts.html
Repeat ad infinitum.