{"product":{"product_id":"0812975219","title":"Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)","price":"14.89","image_url":"https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/41BdFeFRXbL._SL500_.jpg","url":"https://www.amazon.com/dp/0812975219"},"comments":[{"body":"with you. He’s great, and “underachieving” in the tournament is really this:\r\n\r\n[Fooled by Randomness ](https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219)\r\n\r\nedit: also, thanks for McKoy. Most UNC fans don’t realize what a contributor he’s going to be.","subreddit_name":"CollegeBasketball","author":"itscomingright4us"},{"body":"Thanks; and you are welcome. I've read (and highly recommend) Taleb's [*Fooled By Randomness*](https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219), however, and recognize that a repeated monte carlo simulation of the past 20 years of my life would produce vastly different results. In truth, I have very little idea how it all happened, but I can at least - thus far - confidently recommend the four things I wrote above in the post :)","subreddit_name":"Entrepreneur","author":"wclittle"},{"body":"Helpful and interesting, but I'm still left wondering what I'm supposed to do with the information, you know? I mean, yes, I'm consistently seeing evidence of leptokurtosis (now that I'm looking) as well as skew (which was less surprising to me), but I feel like a monkey that just got its hands on a wrench. Clearly I'm supposed to do something with this, but bashing it against a rock doesn't appear to be doing anything.\r\n\r\nI've also been seeing a number of backtests (namely by u/spintwig), showing that selling 30 delta options appears to be profitable overall, which would line up with the leptokurtosis and skew I'm seeing. But other than seeing that both appear to be pointing in the same direction, I feel too dumb to know what else I'm supposed to do, like holding two pieces of a jigsaw puzzle but not knowing what picture I'm putting together. Like maybe it's indicating a more profitable strategy is a 38 delta strategy, or a 25 delta. Or maybe a 38 delta short and a 1 delta long spread (to try and capture the lower volume of intermediate days, but higher volume of large days, that the leptokurtosis is showing). IDK.\r\n\r\nSo I know someone else has put this together before. I just don't know who.\r\n\r\nAnd I'm in the middle of reading [Fooled by Randomness](https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219/ref=sr_1_2?crid=N8IJQMGFFB2F\u0026amp;dchild=1\u0026amp;keywords=fooled+by+randomness\u0026amp;qid=1607281966\u0026amp;s=books\u0026amp;sprefix=fooled+b%2Cstripbooks%2C157\u0026amp;sr=1-2). It's interesting, but I can't say I'm the biggest fan of his writing style. I was planning on finishing this book before deciding if I wanted to read any of his other works.","subreddit_name":"options","author":"specialkayme"},{"body":"Please read chapter 10 of FDR by NNT ..\r\nhttps://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219\r\nFooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the ...\r\n\r\nThe nonlinear viciousness of life. Moving to Bel Air and acquiring the vices of the rich and famous. Why Microsoft’s Bill Gates may not be the best in his business (but please do not inform him of such a fact). Depriving donkeys of food.","subreddit_name":"technology","author":"bombombay123"},{"body":"\u0026gt;The reason I posted was mainly to reflect on a very narrow observation that seemed peculiar when I saw two of the accounts that I followed, acquaintances of mine.\r\n\r\n  \r\nYou've been fooled by randomness, 2 is not enough for a significant sample size.\r\n\r\n  \r\nI recommend you this book.  \r\nhttps://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219","subreddit_name":"Instagram","author":"iusemydogshampoo"},{"body":"\u0026gt; I will say, for breaking news and stuff, it's a great way to keep up. \r\n\r\n[This book](https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219) was life changing for me, even if the author is a bit full of himslef.  Anway, one of the observations is that constant news feeds are toxic.  Much better to just read the *Economist* on Saturday or the Sunday edition of the *New York Times*.  The news will have been digested, researched and accurate.  And there is nothing you can not about on an a day by day basis anyway.","subreddit_name":"EnoughMuskSpam","author":"D74248"},{"body":"As long as your not HODLing a ****coin, HODLing is the much safer option. HODL for years, not months. On day trading, there’s a good book that talks more about how successful people tend to be: [Fooled By Randomness](https://www.amazon.com/dp/0812975219/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_awdb_imm_N67WDR4QMZZ41H62MCAD) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.","subreddit_name":"CryptoCurrency","author":"Turbostrider"},{"body":"There are no patterns, because they'd be exploited right away, if there were any. There is a lot of volatility and randomness, and people's minds LOVE to be fooled by it and see patterns where there aren't any.  \r\n\r\nSpeaking on the subject: https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219","subreddit_name":"Bitcoin","author":"TheGreatMuffin"},{"body":"I think you would appreciate [Fooled by Randomness](https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219) by Taleb. He explains why randomness is a bigger factor in success than most people realize, with examples and math and stories from his time as a trader in the market.","subreddit_name":"changemyview","author":"ThMogget"},{"body":"No, 200 is favorable variance. By definition. If you’d like to learn about probability and luck (and how luck is a much, much bigger factor in everything than most laymen believe.) Check it out! I think you’ll be shocked by what you learn. \r\n\r\n\r\nFooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto) https://www.amazon.com/dp/0812975219/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_eH8.DbVSMEZJ8","subreddit_name":"fantasyfootball","author":"ArbitrageGarage"},{"body":"Further to your quality comment...\r\n\r\n\u0026gt; Basically, active management sometimes wins, sometimes loses.\r\n\r\nPeople who flip coins sometimes win multiple times in a row, to hold them up as oracles is to be [fooled by randomness.](https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219)","subreddit_name":"PersonalFinanceNZ","author":"quantifical"},{"body":"There are two kinds of people that use these TA (Technical analysis) tools in my experience, those that get lucky and think they know what they are doing and those who lose on the trade/s and then say something like \"Oh, but if I had used a 10 period moving average instead it would have worked\" and keep trying. \r\n\r\nMight as well read the entrails of a dead animal, even then you will still get lucky sometimes.\r\n\r\nOthers will have a different opinion.\r\n\r\nHumans are hardwired to be fooled into seeing patterns in randomness - Nicolas Taleb wrote a very good book about it \"Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets\"\r\n\r\nLink:\r\nhttps://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219\r\n","subreddit_name":"NEO","author":"ElecEng66"},{"body":"\u0026gt;   I'm working hard and trying to figure out ways to secure my future more effectively \r\n\r\nWe humans seem to be greedy on the upside, and fail to appreciate the downside risks.  And of course it is no fun to be planning for the downside.  Anway, I suggest [tis book](http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219/ref=sr_1_1?s=books\u0026amp;ie=UTF8\u0026amp;qid=1464970141\u0026amp;sr=1-1\u0026amp;keywords=fooled+by+randomness) as a start, if you have not already found it.\r\n","subreddit_name":"news","author":"[deleted]"},{"body":"If you are in the mood for an amazing read on this topic, do try Nassim Taleb's [Fooled by Randomness](http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8\u0026amp;qid=1434573989\u0026amp;sr=8-2\u0026amp;keywords=naseem+taleb). He has a long career in the market and speaks powerfully about the tendency to believe in our own superpowers over random events. It's impressive that anyone has the realization that you had after making big profits. \r\n\r\nThe sad thing about reading the butters comments is that they fall into all of the same traps as market traders have for years, but they don't have the generations of people that came before them to warn them about it.","subreddit_name":"Buttcoin","author":"MotherOfPus"},{"body":"\u0026gt;So would you say that we should ALWAYS check your overconfidence?\r\n\r\nOne should not use a declarative like \"always\" and \"every\" since situations will be different from time to time you can't state a universal to them.\r\n\r\nOne has to look at what is magic being used for. Is it a model of reality? In this instance would we benefit more from a more accurate model. \r\n\r\n\u0026gt;ambition, morale, resolve, persistence or the credibility of bluffing\r\n\r\nAll these things can be increased with out magic. Knowing the numbers and social norms and psychological drives all can do this more accurately and with better results.  \r\n\r\n\u0026gt;exaggerated confidence actually increases the probability of success\r\n\r\nBut does it really? Does it increase the probability of success empirically or are we just \"[Fooled by Randomness](http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219)\"?","subreddit_name":"DebateAnAtheist","author":"Chaosqueued"}]}