Growing outdoors my example was worst case scenario, growing outdoors a pound from a scrogged/trellised plant forced to spread wide by legal necessity is having more flower area exposed to light and producing more than if it is left alone.
4 plants outdoors are almost no cost and will produce enough product for the user willing to consume volume of average product. That is what you need to take into account when looking at what can be sold in what volumes as part of the total demand. That user might go out and buy a gram or two of some top shelf per month but his regular volume is going to come from his own garden. When some LPs plan on putting out 30,000kg batches of the same average outdoor product at 6/gram there is going to be a problem with uptake.
> I stopped cause it's not worth my time and effort, buying delicious beer and wine from the unlimited selection of the liquor store is far superior to DIY.
Are you currently spending $100/week on beer just for you own consumption, $400/month?
>I grew up with lots of stoners and every single one of them tried to grow and only did it for a short period cause of the work involved, or smell, or giving up due to failures.
I wonder if it being illegal and the smell being a reason to stop had anything to do with the two?
The statistics are the largest sample. They are larger than the government's sample and are in line with the government projections.
This is 77 pages of what the government bases their numbers on.
http://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/web/default/files/Documents/Reports/2016/Legalized%20Cannabis/Legalized%20Canabis%20Fiscal%20Considerations_EN.pdf When you question the statistics you question the exact thing most of the projections are based on around this sub and in many of the articles submitted in this sub.
Mail order is the exact thing that will keep users away from the legal supply, many users will not buy product sight and smell unseen this means sealed in a package on retail without a sample jar let alone by mail. The older the user, the more likely they are to be reading a magazine like the one I posted earlier, the less likely they are to buy anything online as can be seen in one of the graphs in the first article in this reply. The more rural the user the more likely they are already DIY'ing something out of necessity or hobby. I.e. fishing,hunting,chopping wood,farming livestock and produce, etc etc.
The small municipalities across this country are the exact ones saying they don't want it retailed and normalized in their communities, they are the exact places that will have the lowest uptake of the legal supply if it is solely through mail order.
As for the premade kits, have a look at the grow subs and grow forums, you can see what people are spending on personal grow setups compared to the guys with a plan to harvest for sale volume perpetually. These $300 kits are putting out enough to sustain 1g/day with minimal work as are many other setups like it as can be seen in subs like /r/microgrowery. Soil grown is less work than hydro and much less costly to setup and maintain and is the primary growing medium used by personal growers.
Every single it can't be done,they won't do it is currently documented to be false all over the user sphere, be it users growing illegally or with health canada authorization or be it from ever increasing hydroponics/lighting sales.
When you say lot has changed, that is true, there is even less disincentives for users to grow their own now, it's becoming legal.
When you say it is changing it is, Medical patients with 1/g a day licenses can currently grow 2 plants outdoors and keep 750grams in storage or 5 plants indoors and keep 225grams in storage,never allowed to grow indoors and outdoors at the same time, under the new regulations they would be allowed to grow 4 plants perpetually and keep as much in storage while giving as much away of it as they want just like every other person be they a current patient or not. People who are currently LP customers who might not be able to get their doctor to sign off on an original document for growing purposes won't need to rely on a prescription to grow their own.
When price projections coming from so called in the know people have prices above what the majority of the volume gets sold at today, when the user buying from the black market is exposed to less legal risk than the user growing their own,you can bet that when legal a)the incentive to users to grow their own remains the same if not higher and b) the disincentive to grow and have the smell around disappears.