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11 points

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22nd Jul 2018

Bill Gates posted a book on his blog awhile back, How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking. I don't mean this in any sort of negative way, but you should check it out to get a handle on what the guy said. It is an interesting introduction into mathematical principles with a heavy focus on probability.

3 points

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10th Sep 2018

I recently started reading How Not To Be Wrong (The Power of Mathematical Thinking), by Jordan Ellenberg, and while the material is probably way too simple for most on this thread, it's very engaging and informative, relating real world examples to simple math concepts. It's especially good at pointing out how math is used and abused by people to come to inaccurate or sometimes completely false conclusions.

But I think math geniuses aside, everyone can get something out of this book. It's good.

1 point

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18th Mar 2019

Not entirely programming but I also would like to reccomend How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking - Amazon which is a little similiar to what you’re asking. For anyone who wants the pdf feel free to pm me your email. I don’t encourage piracy but books can sometimes be hard to afford.

The book is also reccomended by Bill Gates

1 point

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17th Jul 2020

I mean, maybe, just maybe, we as a species are attempting to plateau and stabilize within our environment as almost every other species does in nature?

I always hear this and think "how close are we to dying out because there will be less people?" As was mentioned in How Not to Be Wrong not all trends continue forever. Especially where life is concerned. Right now we are really sort of pushing the upper limits of how many humans the planet can support, so it makes sense that our species is sort of naturally curbing itself to fall more in line with the available resources.

1 point

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16th Nov 2016

That doesn't sound right.

There is a simple mathematical explanation of insurance and risk in this book:https://www.amazon.com/How-Not-Be-Wrong-Mathematical/dp/0143127535

I'll try to give my two cents from memory.

The point of any insurance is to spread the risk across more than one person. I don't have the liquidity to pay the huge cost associated with an accident/serious health issue. So, in the unlikely event this happens, I'm screwed and would bankrupt. In contrast, rich people don't need insurance as they can pay up when the event does happen. They should keep on to their money as long as possible.

However, barring the margins taken by the insurer, on average the uninsured rich person and the insured poor person are expected to pay equal amounts (assuming for simplicity that both have the same probability of an event occurring).

So, I think that if you work out the math even an insurance company covering only two people would make sense as it reduces the probility of an insurmountable cost occurring (by a little bit).

So, rationally, I think the only stable point is for everybody to be insured that is either not rich enough to be able to take a hit (essentially these people can act as their own insurer) or too poor to pay the monthly fees (these are the people crossing their fingers no cataclysmic event pushes them over the edges).

1 point

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8th Nov 2016

If you're actually interested in why we don't have a tiered voting system, I'd encourage you to read more about the mathematics of voting; in particular, the chapter titled "There Is No Such Thing As Public Opinion" from the book <em>How Not To Be Wrong</em>.

Won't necessarily answer all of your questions but basically the answer is that a dictatorship is the only pure "election" system.

1 point

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15th Feb 2016

Jordan Ellenberg covers survivorship bias and a lot of other similar topics very nicely in "How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking". A very fun read. Here's the Amazon link: http://www.amazon.com/How-Not-Be-Wrong-Mathematical/dp/0143127535

1 point

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28th Dec 2015

Read ( or listen to ) the book "How not to be wrong" by Jordan Ellenberg

It covers not just the stupid "do this" of math, but talks more high level abstract concepts, and discusses real world problems with mathematical implications, and talks about how Math is not some arcane magic, but is in fact a product of human intelligence, and that Math is mostly a formalised version of human natural understanding and rationalisation.

It also covers statistical reasoning, something INTPs typically don't do to well at, because we get distracted by focusing on the details, not realising we don't need the details to draw a good enough conclusion, failing to realise spending too much time on details may actually hinder, not help, the decision making process. ( Because ultimately, you any detail you **think** is sufficient can be subdivided into details that you don't understand at some level, and you can get side tracked working out how quantum particles work in the process of deciding whether or not you want chicken for dinner, so you need to stop at some depth )

IME, INTJs beat us at math because their statistical reasoning is more naturally adapted, and so they're more likely to follow a Mathematical Discipline than we are.

1 point

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3rd Sep 2015

Math and science are essential elements of film production on both the technical and creative sides.

Also math and science are truly awesome things, what sucks is the way they are taught in American high schools. They are literally a window to understanding everything in the universe, not just rote memorization. Check out How Not to Be Wrong an awesome book on the subject.

27 points

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2nd Apr 2019

This is the work of Abraham Wald. If you're interested in survivorship bias, and thinking mathematically in general, please consider reading this book, which discusses this exact story, among others. I just read it last week, and I recommend it.

3 points

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31st Jul 2021

1 point

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12th Dec 2022

1 point

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12th Jun 2022

This story is also told in <em>How Not to Be Wrong</em>. They would have many people go to many different stores, if I remember correctly.

1 point

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28th Feb 2022

Give this book a try:

How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking https://www.amazon.com/dp/0143127535/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apan_glt_i_R96ZEJD02JW4EC5FAXZP

1 point

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22nd Jun 2021

This book https://www.amazon.com/How-Not-Be-Wrong-Mathematical/dp/0143127535 has a very good explanation of the history and interpretations of "significance."

1 point

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8th Dec 2020

suggest OP and everyone reads https://www.amazon.com/How-Not-Be-Wrong-Mathematical/dp/0143127535/

then realize how retarded OPs logic (and probably all of ours, at many points) is.

1 point

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29th Aug 2020

Selections from the YouTube description:

>The story of the profitable lottery game Cash Winfall which was played in Michigan and Massachusetts in the early 2000's. We'll walk through the expected value of the lottery game and show how groups of gamblers were able to profit millions of dollars from their discovery.

>...

>I've created a reading list of all of my favorite books about gambling, finance, and probability so be sure to check it out at https://mindingthedata.com/reading-list/

>...

>References: >Letter to the Treasurer of Massachusetts: https://www.mass.gov/doc/letter-to-state-treasurer-steven-grossman-regarding-the-lottery-july-2012/download

>Huffington Post Article: https://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/lotto-winners/

>How Not to be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg: https://www.amazon.com/How-Not-Be-Wrong-Mathematical/dp/0143127535

1 point

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18th Aug 2019

It's discussed at length in https://www.amazon.com/How-Not-Be-Wrong-Mathematical/dp/0143127535

1 point

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31st Dec 2017

I would have normally ignored your reply, but you have been civil and make *seemingly* good points. So I am forced to. Also, in my opinion half-truths are more dangerous than outright falsehoods and so I am forced to respond.

>I actually recommend you read Alain Badiou's The Communist Hypothesis

Sorry, I am not about to read another piece of Communist junk. Besides I think you have already pointed out the salient points.

> the 'dual power' survival programs of the Black Panther Party

I symapthize with the feelings of the Black Panthers. And I can understand their opposition to a system where they were victimized and thus their adoption of an *apparent* alternative. But they can, and in my opinion were mistaken. Communism was not the answer. And the fact that the Black Panthers are no longer in existence is probably string evidence for that. In fact, the fact that most Communist states are no longer in existence is also strong evidence that Communism is not the answer.

> the feeding and protection of the peasantry by the FSLN, the successful anti-FGM & polygamy, mass literacy, anti-starvation, anti-desertification, debt reduction, national infrastructure, and modernization campaigns in Burkina Faso

You're saying this as if this is only possible under the Communists. A lot of Capitalist states have done this and without recourse to force, expropriation, torture, deportations, and execution.

>he successful struggle for national sovereignty by Ho-Chi Minh

India, a much larger country also had a successful struggle for National Sovereignty. Without recourse to Communism or violence. And India isn't doing too badly either.

> national social care

There are literally few dozens of *non-Communist, neoliberal* countries that have this.

>nearly 100% literacy that's higher than the US's in Cuba

I was surprised by this claim and so checked. For some reason the figures for the US are not available. But the examples are not comparable. May I suggest a book? This one is called How Not to Be Wrong

Additionally, all those examples still do not prove the point. Communism is not sustainable. Any ideology which would prevent it's citizens from leaving, by deadly force if necessary and would indulge in expropriation, torture, exile, deportation, labour camps and executions cannot be sustainable.

Besides which Communism always leads to authoritatrianism. And **every experiment so far** has beautifully brought out this result.

>Similarly, as I pointed out in the last comment, liberal-democratic capitalist nation-states were considered a violent menace

The US predates the French Revolution and it wasn't considered a violent menace. Also, even France, after the violence, turned into a modern nation surmounting far greater challenges than the Communist have had to deal with. In fact I am reading The Discovery of France and it paints a vivid picture of the challenges. I thoroughly recommend it.

And for why Communism has a few successes initially but is not sustainable in the long run, Why Nations Fail has a very interesting take.

1 point

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15th Mar 2017

Lol. I'm going to recommend a very fine book for you to read:

How Not to be Wrong by Jordan Ellenberg; the Power of Mathematical Thinking.

It shows you how to use statistics.

1 point

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13th Apr 2016

How Not To Be Wrong by Jordan Ellenberg is, in part, about probability and statistics. It's a popular science kind of book that focuses on math and logic.

1 point

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20th Jan 2016

Try out Jordan Ellenberg's How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking.

http://www.amazon.com/How-Not-Be-Wrong-Mathematical/dp/0143127535

< $50