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The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2)?
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Cannabis.
I could not read Pete Walker without being stoned the first two times. Maybe a page sober, but probably not more than a few sentences.
Now I can. Heck, I got through The Black Swan sober and that is saying something!
The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nudge by Richard Thaler
This is an issue of enforcement, much like drunk driving. You can say that drunk drivers are going to do what they want, but they do get arrested and they do pay a price. Just like running red lights, you can say that everyone will do it or a high percentage will do it, so there's no need to have the lights. Yet we solve this with enforcement.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb addresses these issues of risk in a number of books and has worked in this industry for years.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00139XTG4/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i0
The reality is that it will form an equilibrium. In one example, he actually talks about risk in driving and how the worst thing a person can do is drive at a high speed the wrong way, in these cases, look at how many of them die. If you choose to act in an extremely dangerous way many times, you have a much higher chance of your own death. It's a matter of stats and game theory, much like drunk drivers and running red lights. It's driving at a high speed the wrong way on the freeway, you can only do it so many times before you die, once you're dead, the problem is solved. This is exactly the example that he uses in his analysis of risk from someone that is a know authority on this subject.
Also, the lanes would be too narrow for a car and on the inside. Bike lanes now are narrow but on the outside, so people park there and make right turns there. With a narrow inside lane, you can't make a turn because there's no turn to make, you can't fit your car, so you can't pass.
There's no evidence that lane splitting would be safer than a separate lane on the inside because it hasn't been done.
Many people don't even realize that lane splitting is legal, they don't look, they don't care and the laws aren't clear about having to move over, even thou the CHP has a clear stance on that. Having a lane would be like a handicap parking.
BTW, most things will be controlled by cameras and robots.
We have a number of spots where if you dare to run the red light, or not pay the fees or in the wrong lane, you get a surprise in the mail.
A few cameras and you can fully remove the right to drive for anyone that breaks the law.
Again, an issue of enforcement and with cameras, robots and AI, this will only get cheaper. Cameras are everywhere and even monitors in cars and robot police.
Local grocery store has a full police trailer 24/7 with all kinds of cameras watching everyone every minute of every day. The crime there as dropped like a rock.
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>The good traders GameKyuubi was wrong about only one thing: There aren't any good traders.
If you haven't seen a good trader yet, does that mean they do not exist?
Nobody had ever seen a black swan. For thousands of years, that meant that they didn't exist. Until someone saw one, of course.
You are running into a fundamental problem of inductive logic, and it's preventing you from seeing trading rationally. If you want to read more on how this matters to traders, I'd suggest The black swan by Nassim Taleb
>There are lots of us who believe we are good traders. But we aren't. Of course, some of the loudest voices on Reddit regularly remind us about how well they time the market. Except when they don't time the market well.
Here is the first misconception about trading. The best traders have never timed the markets. They utilize arbitrage opportunities, which exist in countless forms across every asset class, and rarely have anything to do with market timing.
>A paper published last October by the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley entitled "Do Day Traders Rationally Learn About Their Ability?" used nearly 15 years of stock market day trading data to conclude that all day traders are irrational, the vast majority of day traders lose money, and even when day traders are successful, they "irrationally attribute success disproportionately to their ability rather than luck."
Now this I agree with. The vast majority of traders are terrible at trading, and when they do win, it's because they are lucky, not because they are smart. One of the fundamental books on Wallstreet for understanding this is What I learned losing a million dollars
The entire story is about an extremely successful trader who lost everything on one bet, mainly because his entire life before that had been a string of extremely lucky coincidences, and he never realized it.
>Of course, their success was due to their unique trading ability and not the fact that the entire market rose like a rocket.
Keep in mind, the best traders are always benchmarked against an asset or index. This is called beta weighing. If you make less money trading then you would have from just holding the bench marked asset, you have effectively lost money from trading.
>Warren Buffett, the most successful investor of modern times, has often said that he only invests in what he knows. His preferred holding period: forever. With that model, his company, Berkshire Hathaway, has averaged a 19 percent annual return since 1965 which means it has risen more than 1 million percent.
There are a lot of reasons for Warren Buffet's success, but it's worth pointing out that it's a lot more complex than just picking a security and holding it forever. If you want to learn about value investing, and the fundemental analysis behind it, check out Security Analysis
It's written by Ben Graham, the guy who taught Warren Buffet everything he knows. Arguably the most important concept in the text is called [investing with a margin of safety](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_safety_(financial)
Bitcoin definitely has intrinsic value. The problem is, nobody knows what that intrinsic value is worth. Since there is no currently known method of valuing a decentralized network (although progress is being made) Warren Buffet wouldn't touch bitcoin with a 10 foot pole, and if you want to invest in value, the way he has, you shouldn't either.
>Trading is no solution for intelligent people. What we need are new ways to use cryptocurrency.
Ouch man, that's harsh. I'm interested in why you correlate hodling with intelligence. IMO, there are dumb people hodling, and dumb people trading. Most of the time, it's those who form an opinion based on a single source, or worse yet a single quote, who are dumb. It's those that think in absolutes, and without a healthy degree of skepticism.
According to Ben Graham, it's not the speculators or the investors that are dumb. It's the people that can't tell the difference between the two.
EDIT: Sorry, typed this up real quick at work. Spelling and grammar mistakes everywhere.
Robot as in no feeling? Hardly. My point was simply who won a speculative bet is irrelevant to the citizenry. Sorry about the cheap shot aimed at Chavez economic policy. If anything my comment was my own emotional reaction to politics based on slogan not substantive issues. IMO shorting the pound was far from substantive.
The impact of the economic shifts of both globalization and software devastates low skill workers. Just as farmers were radically displaced in "leave" areas a century ago, weavers (just an example I'm familiar with due to a past job) and other low skill jobs are disappearing now (or gone). Global productivity gains amplified by software creates similar social upheaval as the industrial revolution. Within democracies we must address these shifts. Arguing about policies to address these macro trends are critical to strengthen outcomes for citizens.
Whether or not those macro shifts were on voter’s minds or not; the impact is highest in the areas that voted to leave. This shift must be addressed in government policy. Security too but I don’t know anything about securing countries or blocks of countries.
Speculators on the pound are merely a side show. Gamblers who win or lose aren't super interesting. Does a retired person winning or losing a million quid at the Aspers-Stratford casino matter? Good copy maybe. Same with speculators on the referendum. Soros was supposedly long on the pound. Does that make him dumb or altruistic? Supposedly Crispin Odey was short. Is he evil, bad or smart? If they didn't speculate would it have changed the outcome for the london banker who would lose their job given a full Brexit? This is a side show. Money moved from Soros to Odey. Who cares.
As a side matter in the who cares department, all the folks who bet against the pound for other reasons now get credit for predicting Brexit:
1. overvalued currency (e.g., http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12065157/Pound-is-most-overvalued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html) OR
2. to protect against a black swan event (https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00139XTG4/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1#navbar)
Finally, from a govt. policy perspective, hedge funds shorting the pound should not be conflated with weaknesses in rated collateralized-dept-obligations (CDOs). That’s a different “hedge funds are evil” argument. I’m down with regulatory shifts across rating agencies and CDOs. Rated CDOs obviously didn’t manage risk as advertised. Well-designed regulatory regimes that help prevent misinformation improve market efficiency and benefit citizens IMHO.
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