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Oh, I just posted an article on this topic. I have been thinking the same sort of thing myself, after reading the article and Fukuyama's book, the first volume of The Origins of Political Order. He suggests that democracy is really actually pretty hard to get to, and that there are three different things in a nation's history that ready it for democracy, and that those things have to happen in a sort of chance occurrence. They are: rule of law, centralized government, and government accountability. They only came together, really, he says, in Western Europe and, I guess, in states put together along those models. His next volume is on how democracy might actually work out in other countries.

FYI, the article is here. The book is available on Amazon in preview form.