Fair for the most part, but what your analysis is missing is that Russians are a classical imperial nation, and after achieving prosperity thanks to competent help they would have been expected to once again develop global ambitions, even if ones less antagonistic towards the United States – but also much more effective. China made incredible advances due to integration into global capitalism, and look where that got us all.
No, I think honest incompetence was a part, but it was well understood and accounted for part on a higher level of decisionmaking; and the best case scenario envisioned was Russia falling apart into easily managed puppet states, and nuclear program eliminated a la South Africa. What actually happened was probably still a failure, but not a dangerous one: Russia is economically insignificant and not nearly as rogue as it's made out to be.
Fears of proliferation espoused back then strike me as disingenuous, just like the trope about global overpopulation – it seems that normies still believe it, and graduate advised each other to have less children, but some USG experts were aware of incoming demographic collapse as early as in 2005, and advocated for mass immigration on these grounds. I have faith that American state knows what they are doing, and put those who don't to good use.