I can not explain this to you. If the polls were actually sampling "actual voters" and not "likely voters" you would be partially correct. That is described here.
http://www.economica.ca/ew13_1p2.htm
But, they aren't. Each poll is sampling a completely different species. I wrote up a post trying to explain the multi-dimensionality of all this.
So I am just going to quote myself.
"I appreciate your rigor here. But, I can't explain this to you it is multi-dimension problem. I will try though. Exit-polls are accurate because they sample the population. Actual voters. Pre-voting polls do not sample actual voters. They through various means attempt to sample "likely voters." So get out a piece of paper and draw a coordinate system with "actual voters" in the center. And then throw a couple of darts at it to get a representative sample of "likely voters." All pre-voting polls do just this. Now, some polls target only a subsection of "likely voters" those you are calling "biased." Some, have low numbers or other problems, those you are calling poor quality, but no polls are centered on "Actual voters" unless by pure chance your dart hit the center. The "Sampling" error reported is about the dart hole. NOT about the position of the "Actual voter." So when you average the polls, what they are doing is converting this 2-dimensional sheet and aligning all the holes on top of each other. You can weight the sampling from that coninciding point all you want the actual error is still that whole sheet. Beyond the "likely" vs. "actual" voter issues you have the cognitive bias of the "survey effect." Unless all polls ask the same questions, in the same manner and tone, this "survey error" will be different and is BEYOND the sampling error reported. And I am not talking about the "House Effect." https://www.amazon.com/Psychology-Survey-Response-Roger-Tourangeau/dp/0521576296 It has been found that just by surveying people you get skewed results. And, each poll skews in different ways. There is a Machine Learning Group that is getting good data. It is AI something and is using Twitter. It is not surveying or polling and it is sampling millions of users to determine who actually will vote and what their vote will be. EDIT: I realize there is a slight error in this example but honestly I have no way of explaining this as it is a multi-dimensional error problem."