So it sounds like we are actually fairly similar in this respect anyways.
There is a recent book out which I hope to dig into soon: https://www.amazon.com/Volatility-Surface-Practitioners-Guide-Finance-ebook/dp/B00D56BWI0/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=
as well as this: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VmkAAGOYCTORq1wxSQqy255qLJjTNvBI/view
So I have those tips are far as vol surfacing and probability goes. Check out NuclearPhynance, there is a lot more 'advanced' discussion going on there.