{"product":{"product_id":"0691152640","title":"This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly","price":"12.99","image_url":"https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/419+cIa5rNL._SL500_.jpg","url":"https://www.amazon.com/dp/0691152640"},"comments":[{"body":"Your brother is likely a Timmy.\r\n\r\nHe believes in the Warren Buffet BS of \"it is important to save money and invest in good companies\"; \"the path to riches is compound interest over your investment\"; etc.\r\n\r\nIt's not that Buffet is wrong. Saving is important and is one of the most important paths to wealth. Receiving compound interest also is an important path to wealth. The thing you've got to keep in mind is that this Warren fundamentalist B\u0026amp;H BS has become a full blown mania/bubble. Fundamentalist analysis / valuation work as it is proven by Benjamin Graham and his followers (Buffet among them). **The problem is that this mania shifted from research good companies and worry with capital preservation to buy index funds and never sell**. People are buying stock index funds because they tend to represent the overall performance of the economy or of a sector and they just mindlessly put their money in there believing the price will only go up and, if it ever crashes, it doesn't matter because it will recover. People are buying bonds with ridiculously low interest rates that are far from being safe.\r\n\r\nAnyway, I think that you should read the book, but be careful with the B\u0026amp;H myth surrounding Warren Buffer. I also suggest you read [This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly](https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640/) and then take a look at the US debt. Look into the NIRP in Europe and the QE 1, 2 and 3 in the US. Etc.\r\n\r\n\r\nGood luck.\r\n\r\nBuy land, because god won't make more.","subreddit_name":"wallstreetbets","author":"Dhosti"},{"body":"If you're interested, here's a great book: \"[This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly](https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2KTXKKRCYKHNY\u0026amp;keywords=this+time+is+different+eight+centuries+of+financial+folly\u0026amp;qid=1561997426\u0026amp;s=gateway\u0026amp;sprefix=this+time+is+d%2Caps%2C135\u0026amp;sr=8-1).\" It's about exactly this phenomenon.  The people who are getting rich always think that their success is because they are smarter than other people and they've figured out what went wrong last time.  It's part of an essential fallacy wherein people attribute their successes to their own efforts/genius and externalize their failures.","subreddit_name":"politics","author":"KingGilgamesh1979"},{"body":"\u0026gt; debt to the government is absolutely fucking irrelevant\r\n\r\nOh god this is so misguided it's terrifying.\r\n\r\nGo read [This Time Is Different](https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640)\r\n\r\nOr ask yourself why Zimbabwe couldn't currency-control itself out of financial collapse. Yes, government debt is more complex than consumer debt, and controlling the monetary supply is a powerful tool. But it's not a license to do whatever the fuck you want. Countries can and do misuse this power all the time to their own peril. The US is no different. We must manage this stuff, and right now we're not. We're doing the opposite of what we should be doing.","subreddit_name":"investing","author":"porncrank"},{"body":"Ideally we would have stayed Neutral during ww1 and mirrored our military like the Swiss's militia system. Iran is a problem because the CIA \u0026amp; British fooled around with Iran which blew up in their faces. We still feel the repercussions of their mess up yet the organizations who caused the mess in the first place say that things will be different this time.\r\n\r\nhttps://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=different+this+time+stock+market\u0026amp;qid=1567395501\u0026amp;s=gateway\u0026amp;sr=8-1","subreddit_name":"Firearms","author":"strunberg"},{"body":"There is a reason the classic book on bubbles and panics is titled [*This Time Is Different*](https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640).  To paraphrase JK Galbraith, for every bubble there must be an essential element of newness -- not to convince people, but to *allow* those who wish to believe to do so.  That *this* time the rules have changed and it won't end the way it literally always has.\r\n\r\nThe SoV argument is a weird one, because \"store of value\" is not really a financial concept anyone used before Bitcoin.  (It's taken from the standard list of things needed to be a currency.)  The closest thing is \"inflation hedge\", something you expect to retain its value in the event of inflation in fiat, like gold.  But you generally don't expect the *real* value of an inflation hedge to go up -- its nominal value may rise as the dollar (or whatever) falls, but the whole point is that it retains value rather than increasing.  \r\n\r\nBasically, there are a lot of reasons to think that Bitcoin is in a pretty classic speculative bubble like all those that have come before, so the burden of proof would seem to fall on its defenders.  \"Number go up\" is not a defense, since that's exactly what you'd expect in a bubble.","subreddit_name":"Buttcoin","author":"DjangoWexler"},{"body":"I think the difference with Bitcoin is that the protocol itself both diffuses the responsibility for the scam and makes it easy to bring back.  In a typical Ponzi, the collapse exposes the perpetrator and *destroys the instrument of the scheme*.  The fund goes bust, the company collapses, and so on.  In a speculative bubble (which is a sort of \"natural\" Ponzi scheme) the bubbling asset is widely discredited and people wonder how it could ever have been so trusted.\r\n\r\nWith Bitcoin, though, even in the event of a collapse, as long as there are enough true believers who keep mining, the *thing* keeps existing and can draw in a fresh round of suckers once people forget.  There's no fund or company or product to shut down, ultimately.  And its easy for people to rationalize the failures by blaming everything but the protocol itself.    \r\n\r\nIt also helps that Bitcoin is unlike most things that have come before (n.b. this doesn't make it good).  There's a reason that the rallying cry of speculative bubbles is \"[this time is different](https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640/)\", and with Bitcoin it's *easy* to convince yourself that it's different, especially if your ideology already leans toward libertarian.","subreddit_name":"Buttcoin","author":"DjangoWexler"},{"body":"Yeah, I have seen those exact same threads before.\r\n\r\nEvery single time there is a bunch of comments high on hopium saying \"this time is different \u0026lt;X_SCAM_COMPANY\u0026gt; is not like \u0026lt;Y_SCAM_COMPANY\u0026gt;\", all the way to the point where shit explodes. Then a few still will be around in \u0026lt;X_SCAM_COMPANY\u0026gt; subreddit huffing on hopium, like the folks on /r/CelsiusNetwork or /r/terraluna, etc.\r\n\r\nIt's just how this goes, every single fucking time, lol.\r\n\r\n[This time is never fucking different](https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640).","subreddit_name":"CryptoCurrency","author":"notlikeyourex"},{"body":"\r\nBottom of most reports or analysis from Denver Metro Association of Realtors has the disclaimer:  “All data from REcolorado or Ires”. This indicates their statistics likely only include sales that occurred through member realtors who participated in their multi list service. FSBO and investor purchases that did not use a realtor would not be included.\r\n\r\nCurrent market is not that similar to 15 years ago. On the other hand, THIS TIME IS ALWAYS DIFFERENT.\r\n\r\nhttps://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640","subreddit_name":"Denver","author":"justafriendjusthetip"},{"body":"This is probably the stupidest and most harmful thing I’ve ever read on this sub.\r\n\r\nSovereign default means that people stop lending money to governments (or only so so at exorbitant interest rates in order to compensate them for the risk of another default). Without loans, government spending in these countries needs to be severely curtailed, and the government can not use debt to augment low tax revenue during recessions. In the absence of loans to boost and smooth government spending, recessions become both more common and more severe, housing markets crash, hyperinflation is common as governments try to print their way out. Unemployment spikes and remains high for years or decades after default, and suicides spike as well. There are countless research papers on this, [here’s a book summarising many of them](https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640).\r\n\r\nThere are real people being harmed and even killed by this, try stopping your socialist revolutionary LARP long enough to see that.","subreddit_name":"Buttcoin","author":"Jimmi_Recard"},{"body":"This guy is 100% right.\r\n\r\nThe only value of decentralization is as meme/marketing material.  It's the element of crypto that allows people to believe that this is *new*, that the laws of financial reality no longer apply, that [*this time is different*](https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640).\r\n\r\nIf you could launch a crypto today that was completely centralized -- literally just run it on Amazon cloud or something -- and *keep anyone from finding this out*, it would outperform every other project in terms of speed and fees.  (Of course, that doesn't guarantee you financial success.)","subreddit_name":"Buttcoin","author":"DjangoWexler"},{"body":"Reinhart and Rogoff's [This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly](https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2ZLDNJA8609VP\u0026amp;dchild=1\u0026amp;keywords=this+time+is+different+eight+centuries+of+financial+folly\u0026amp;qid=1633538034\u0026amp;sprefix=this+time+is+diffe%2Caps%2C250\u0026amp;sr=8-1). Its not about theory, but real economic and financial history. Any theory you have should fit *this* data.","subreddit_name":"austrian_economics","author":"DarthRainbows"},{"body":"Based on history. No it is not sustainable. Even with world reserve currency status there comes a point where debt to GDP ratios that are too high can lead to a collapse. In fact every major financial crises has always been preceded by an unfavorable debt to gdp ratio. However only 50% of the time that the ratio is unfavorable does a financial crises occur. The other 50% of the time the country unwinds the ratio to a more favorable level. There is no instance of a sustained worsening ratio. What I’m saying is sourced from the book below. I would encourage you to read it versus Reddit comments. \r\n\r\nhttps://www.amazon.com/dp/0691152640/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_awdb_imm_YGD11KS7PSQRVKGBYA5G","subreddit_name":"dataisbeautiful","author":"Annonymoos"},{"body":"You’re welcome to read \r\n\r\nhttps://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640/ref=nodl_\r\n\r\nThat book is done by the researchers who have shown what the debt ratio to GDP Has been before EVERY financial crises that has occurred in the last 8 centuries. Or you can just call anyone who looks at a historical metric a corporatist lol.","subreddit_name":"Libertarian","author":"Annonymoos"},{"body":"This time is different... 800 years of economics history ignored.\r\n\r\nhttps://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640\r\n\r\nEven if someone truly belive it is different now. Don't compare crypto to stocks, that is just plain wrong in every aspect.","subreddit_name":"HeliumNetwork","author":"danski0"},{"body":"Yes, the well known medieval economy of the 1500s-1960s.\r\n\r\n\r\nRemember that one time we had a fiat currency for more than about 50 years without a war to reset debt or hyperinflation? No? No one else does either. But hey, maybe this is a first. \"This time it's different.\"\r\n\r\n\r\nhttps://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640","subreddit_name":"samharris","author":"zenethics"}]}