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This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly?
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Your brother is likely a Timmy.
He believes in the Warren Buffet BS of "it is important to save money and invest in good companies"; "the path to riches is compound interest over your investment"; etc.
It's not that Buffet is wrong. Saving is important and is one of the most important paths to wealth. Receiving compound interest also is an important path to wealth. The thing you've got to keep in mind is that this Warren fundamentalist B&H BS has become a full blown mania/bubble. Fundamentalist analysis / valuation work as it is proven by Benjamin Graham and his followers (Buffet among them). The problem is that this mania shifted from research good companies and worry with capital preservation to buy index funds and never sell. People are buying stock index funds because they tend to represent the overall performance of the economy or of a sector and they just mindlessly put their money in there believing the price will only go up and, if it ever crashes, it doesn't matter because it will recover. People are buying bonds with ridiculously low interest rates that are far from being safe.
Anyway, I think that you should read the book, but be careful with the B&H myth surrounding Warren Buffer. I also suggest you read This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly and then take a look at the US debt. Look into the NIRP in Europe and the QE 1, 2 and 3 in the US. Etc.
Good luck.
Buy land, because god won't make more.
If you're interested, here's a great book: "This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly." It's about exactly this phenomenon. The people who are getting rich always think that their success is because they are smarter than other people and they've figured out what went wrong last time. It's part of an essential fallacy wherein people attribute their successes to their own efforts/genius and externalize their failures.
> debt to the government is absolutely fucking irrelevant
Oh god this is so misguided it's terrifying.
Go read This Time Is Different
Or ask yourself why Zimbabwe couldn't currency-control itself out of financial collapse. Yes, government debt is more complex than consumer debt, and controlling the monetary supply is a powerful tool. But it's not a license to do whatever the fuck you want. Countries can and do misuse this power all the time to their own peril. The US is no different. We must manage this stuff, and right now we're not. We're doing the opposite of what we should be doing.
Ideally we would have stayed Neutral during ww1 and mirrored our military like the Swiss's militia system. Iran is a problem because the CIA & British fooled around with Iran which blew up in their faces. We still feel the repercussions of their mess up yet the organizations who caused the mess in the first place say that things will be different this time.
There is a reason the classic book on bubbles and panics is titled <em>This Time Is Different</em>. To paraphrase JK Galbraith, for every bubble there must be an essential element of newness -- not to convince people, but to allow those who wish to believe to do so. That this time the rules have changed and it won't end the way it literally always has.
The SoV argument is a weird one, because "store of value" is not really a financial concept anyone used before Bitcoin. (It's taken from the standard list of things needed to be a currency.) The closest thing is "inflation hedge", something you expect to retain its value in the event of inflation in fiat, like gold. But you generally don't expect the real value of an inflation hedge to go up -- its nominal value may rise as the dollar (or whatever) falls, but the whole point is that it retains value rather than increasing.
Basically, there are a lot of reasons to think that Bitcoin is in a pretty classic speculative bubble like all those that have come before, so the burden of proof would seem to fall on its defenders. "Number go up" is not a defense, since that's exactly what you'd expect in a bubble.
I think the difference with Bitcoin is that the protocol itself both diffuses the responsibility for the scam and makes it easy to bring back. In a typical Ponzi, the collapse exposes the perpetrator and destroys the instrument of the scheme. The fund goes bust, the company collapses, and so on. In a speculative bubble (which is a sort of "natural" Ponzi scheme) the bubbling asset is widely discredited and people wonder how it could ever have been so trusted.
With Bitcoin, though, even in the event of a collapse, as long as there are enough true believers who keep mining, the thing keeps existing and can draw in a fresh round of suckers once people forget. There's no fund or company or product to shut down, ultimately. And its easy for people to rationalize the failures by blaming everything but the protocol itself.
It also helps that Bitcoin is unlike most things that have come before (n.b. this doesn't make it good). There's a reason that the rallying cry of speculative bubbles is "this time is different", and with Bitcoin it's easy to convince yourself that it's different, especially if your ideology already leans toward libertarian.
Yeah, I have seen those exact same threads before.
Every single time there is a bunch of comments high on hopium saying "this time is different <X_SCAM_COMPANY> is not like <Y_SCAM_COMPANY>", all the way to the point where shit explodes. Then a few still will be around in <X_SCAM_COMPANY> subreddit huffing on hopium, like the folks on /r/CelsiusNetwork or /r/terraluna, etc.
It's just how this goes, every single fucking time, lol.
Bottom of most reports or analysis from Denver Metro Association of Realtors has the disclaimer: “All data from REcolorado or Ires”. This indicates their statistics likely only include sales that occurred through member realtors who participated in their multi list service. FSBO and investor purchases that did not use a realtor would not be included.
Current market is not that similar to 15 years ago. On the other hand, THIS TIME IS ALWAYS DIFFERENT.
https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
This is probably the stupidest and most harmful thing I’ve ever read on this sub.
Sovereign default means that people stop lending money to governments (or only so so at exorbitant interest rates in order to compensate them for the risk of another default). Without loans, government spending in these countries needs to be severely curtailed, and the government can not use debt to augment low tax revenue during recessions. In the absence of loans to boost and smooth government spending, recessions become both more common and more severe, housing markets crash, hyperinflation is common as governments try to print their way out. Unemployment spikes and remains high for years or decades after default, and suicides spike as well. There are countless research papers on this, here’s a book summarising many of them.
There are real people being harmed and even killed by this, try stopping your socialist revolutionary LARP long enough to see that.
This guy is 100% right.
The only value of decentralization is as meme/marketing material. It's the element of crypto that allows people to believe that this is new, that the laws of financial reality no longer apply, that <em>this time is different</em>.
If you could launch a crypto today that was completely centralized -- literally just run it on Amazon cloud or something -- and keep anyone from finding this out, it would outperform every other project in terms of speed and fees. (Of course, that doesn't guarantee you financial success.)
Reinhart and Rogoff's This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Its not about theory, but real economic and financial history. Any theory you have should fit this data.
Based on history. No it is not sustainable. Even with world reserve currency status there comes a point where debt to GDP ratios that are too high can lead to a collapse. In fact every major financial crises has always been preceded by an unfavorable debt to gdp ratio. However only 50% of the time that the ratio is unfavorable does a financial crises occur. The other 50% of the time the country unwinds the ratio to a more favorable level. There is no instance of a sustained worsening ratio. What I’m saying is sourced from the book below. I would encourage you to read it versus Reddit comments.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0691152640/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_awdb_imm_YGD11KS7PSQRVKGBYA5G
You’re welcome to read
https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640/ref=nodl_
That book is done by the researchers who have shown what the debt ratio to GDP Has been before EVERY financial crises that has occurred in the last 8 centuries. Or you can just call anyone who looks at a historical metric a corporatist lol.
This time is different... 800 years of economics history ignored.
https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
Even if someone truly belive it is different now. Don't compare crypto to stocks, that is just plain wrong in every aspect.
Yes, the well known medieval economy of the 1500s-1960s.
Remember that one time we had a fiat currency for more than about 50 years without a war to reset debt or hyperinflation? No? No one else does either. But hey, maybe this is a first. "This time it's different."
https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
But you can tell the future and that’s somehow different? I’ll tell you why it’s not unknowable. Because there is a history of financial bubbles to look back on and see this is no different. The best way to predict the future is look to the past.
You don’t know how dumb you are because you are a kid. When you’re my age you’ll realise.
Try reading this: https://www.amazon.co.uk/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
Learned my lesson after holding 5500 shares since April:
- There's no limit to how long it can keep trending down. It can keep going down for days, for weeks, for months, or even years! It goes down when market goes up. When market goes down it drops even more. It will make long term buyers very happy, until they see it dropping dead
- Company is poorly run. The entire firm changed from engineering firm to a PR firm lately (with the useless app, cabin reveal, supersonic jet rendering), which is extremely disappointing.
- Do not trust this company can become the next TSLA. People holding TSLA since $300 pre stock split say they believe in the stock. It means absolutely nothing. If you guess a coin flip correctly, it doesn't make you guess it correct next time
- Buy puts to protect profits when it goes above $20 again. Buy FAR OTM put month out! Why? See to point 1
- Never never never sell covered call, it totally forfeits potential upside. Buying puts is the way
- Rich Smith is a clown. His articles on Motley Fools are written for fools
- There's no reason to believe Chamath or Michael will be different from Richard Branson. Famous last words: "THIS TIME WILL BE DIFFERENT"
I'm prepared to lose my shirt holding this stock. Worthy gamble. But to be host, this stock is disgusting
Its happened quite frequently throughout world history, although dry this book gives an exhaustive overview of the different varieties of financial crisis and default.
The same thing is coming to many US Cities and States... there is no way that these unfunded liabilities can ever be honored or paid in full...
The time honored way out has been to hyperinflate the currency - according to Rogart and Reinhoff. This has been the way it has been handled for the last 900 or so years.
This is nothing new, really.
Odd, it says you posted this 16 hours ago, but it just showed up/messaged me about it now?
Anyways, both our posts got deleted on that other thread.
Lol be serious, nobody says" Japanese Housing Bubble Burst" and is referencing the 2008 United States housing bubble. The Japanese bubble was in the 1990's.
No, what you said was:
>And in 5 - 10 year the market is going to recover and the price is going to come back up to the purchase price.
But in Japan, it's been almost 30 years now since the housing bubble burst, and it still hasn't come close to recovering. So much for your 5-10 year timeline.
>And currently we are under a very different condition.
Oh, so what you're saying is "this time is different"?
There's a great book based on this idea: This Time Is Different
Housing is a commodity. It should rise at exactly the same rate as inflation. As an owner I hope this isn't a bubble that pops, but this rise in price is unsustainable by definition. Either a generation moves out and takes the city's future with it, we build a ton more housing and cool prices, or something else pops.
Big would be the amount of debt used to fuel it relative to income. The sub prime mortgage crisis was around 120% by my recollection (could be off by 10%) and Australia is currently at 130% (again could be off). So the shocks around the globe likely wont be comparable, since the Australian market is much smaller, but for those of us in the market a pop wouldn't be so good.
Most of these ideas of mine are paraphrased or inspired by the book This Time is Different: https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
This time it's different https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
This Time is Different by Rogoff and Reinhart
https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
Modern crashes are a bit different and I suggest you read Bernanke's latest book on those:
My 'anger' at educated people. LoL. I'm not angry, there are economists on both sides of this; unfortunately, the popular ones continue to be wrong.
Just look up the famous John Kenneth Galbraith, the NY Times Economist for decades who was always wrong - so much so, that he famously quipped: "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."
If you want to learn about economics and inflation, here are some links. If you want to learn how to spit out left-wing talking points that are wrong, keep watching CNN and listening to the DNC.
Free book:
http://thirdparadigm.org/doc/45060880-When-Money-Dies.pdf
https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
🧸 It's time for 🧠 Thinky Brens Time 🧠 - with BEAR FACTS! 🧸
Many people imagine that Prof. Robert Shiller's 'CAPE10' measure is a tool for timing the market.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
When the CAPE10 is high, your chance of a crash is higher, surely? Not so!
As any old grizzly will tell you, the CAPE is a tool for figuring out probable long-term returns, not a timing guide! CAPE10 has been found to predict 90% of the variation in future 10-year returns from stock market investment.
So what kind of return can you expect if you recently invested at the peak, and 'diamond hands' hold all the way to the year 2032, after ten years of your life have passed?
But isn't the CAPE based on mere history? Whereas now we live in an amazing future, with lasers, spaceships, deadly plague and digital money for dogs, and a market that only goes up? The book 'THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT', which covers 800 years of financial history, suggests otherwise.
There's also reason to believe you might be waiting til 2037 to see your 'mad gainz' start to begin!
Lyn Alden has an interesting article here if you'd like to read more:
https://www.lynalden.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio/
🥳🧸🎉🧸🎉🥳 Enjoy the Thursday Crash fellow bers! It's party time! 🥳🧸🎉🧸🎉🥳
🧸 It's time for 🧠 Thinky Brens Time 🧠 - with BEAR FACTS! 🧸
Many people imagine that Prof. Robert Shiller's 'CAPE10' measure is a tool for timing the market.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
When the CAPE10 is high, your chance of a crash is higher, surely? Not so!
As any old grizzly will tell you, the CAPE is a tool for figuring out probable long-term returns, not a timing guide! CAPE10 has been found to predict 90% of the variation in future 10-year returns from stock market investment.
So what kind of return can you expect if you recently invested at the peak, and 'diamond hands' hold all the way to the year 2032, after ten years of your life have passed?
But isn't the CAPE based on mere history? Whereas now we live in an amazing future, with lasers, spaceships, deadly plague and digital money for dogs, and a market that only goes up? The book 'THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT', which covers 800 years of financial history, suggests otherwise.
There's also reason to believe you might be waiting til 2037 to see your 'mad gainz' start to begin!
Lyn Alden has an interesting article here if you'd like to read more:
https://www.lynalden.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio/
🥳🧸🎉🧸🎉🥳 Enjoy the Thursday Crash fellow bers! It's party time! 🥳🧸🎉🧸🎉🥳
🧸 It's time for 🧠 Thinky Brens Time 🧠 - with BEAR FACTS! 🧸
Many people imagine that Prof. Robert Shiller's 'CAPE10' measure is a tool for timing the market.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
When the CAPE10 is high, your chance of a crash is higher, surely? Not so!
As any old grizzly will tell you, the CAPE is a tool for figuring out probable long-term returns, not a timing guide! CAPE10 has been found to predict 90% of the variation in future 10-year returns from stock market investment.
So what kind of return can you expect if you recently invested at the peak, and 'diamond hands' hold all the way to the year 2032, after ten years of your life have passed?
But isn't the CAPE based on historical situations? Whereas now we live in the amazing future, with lasers, and spaceships, deadly plague and electronic money for dogs, and the market can only go up? The book 'THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT', which covers 800 years of financial history, suggests otherwise.
There's also evidence to suggest that you might be waiting til 2037 to see your 'mad gainz'![https://www.lynalden.com/wp-content/uploads/International-CAPE-Ratio.jpg]
Lyn Alden has an interesting article here if you'd like to read more: https://www.lynalden.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio/
🥳🧸🎉🧸🎉🥳 Enjoy the Thursday Crash fellow bers! It's party time! 🥳🧸🎉🧸🎉🥳
We've never had (thing) before
I want to recommend a book to you
https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
Your first examples are a well known problem in economics. Here’s a book about it
I’ll give you some graphs and you can map out most crisis in various countries.
Which is why many economists have for a long time said China will have a crisis. It is very difficult to tell when, but predicting whether there will be or not is a different thing than when.
:) I can try. But my speed will be dependent on your reading speed.
Money is controlled by governments. Sometimes governments act badly. When this happens, an efficient means of exchange becomes highly inefficient. Drug dealers, for example, deal with this in the US. Not to say that's good or bad, but the point is that capital controls can be administered narrowly (drug dealers) or they can be administered indiscriminately (Venezuela). This has always been known. And the friction that is put on the system in these environments acts like a tax. Drug dealers have to store their wealth in buildings as dollars or jewelry or precious metal. Venezuelans have to be creative. Many of them literally export value with Herbalife, believe it or not. These methods all involve huge losses. Drug cartels, for example, will often take a 40+% loss in moving money from the sale of heroine back to their respective country.
I like the example of drug dealers because it articulates the same problem that people like Venezuelans have. Venezuelans will take similar losses in capital to export value out of capital controls. In the US, we are not totalitarian, and there are (hopefully) protections against totalitarianism. But other countries do turn, and they turn suddenly, sometimes without warning.
Moreover, there are countries to it is impossible to export value. Somalia, for example, has no ability to receive US remittance. No banks will transfer money there. It is off limits. So while Somalian pirates have every opportunity to use something like this (bad), the open protocol allows people to export value to family in relatives in nations where capital controls have been imposed on the country itself. So there are two really good uses for high value density tools like Bitcoin: capital controls imposed from within, and capital controls imposed from without.
You don't have to like this, but it is a use case. And for centuries people have been trying to find a good way to do represent value that you can own. Gold was what was used for a long time. We slowly moved to paper money after it was invented in the Mississippi company scam. I'm not saying that the Bitcoin Standard will happen, or that the world will adopt it. But I do think it is naive to pretend that there is no reason for anyone to use anything other than the "efficient legacy system." There are people for whom that system doesn't work, nor are any of its substitutes really great for them.
That said, I do believe that money is Monopolistic. There is very little reason for the world to run on two monies. Every type of exchange causes friction, and that friction could be wiped away by moving to a single money. The world knows this. It's why so many countries either peg their currency to the USD, or have the USD as a side-rail to their currency. They prefer to interact with the USD because they believe to be stronger, a hedge against their own local currency risks. So there is no reason that Bitcoin wouldn't be able to occupy that position, especially in a world where the USD weakens.
There is a great book that explains debt cycles in countries. It's not a Libertarian screed in any way. It's written by Cameron Reinhart and Ken Rogoff. They are well respected economists. They aren't asserting that the USD is going to collapse or the dollar will disappear tomorrow. But the theme of the book is that eventually countries become unable to pay their foreign debt. Eventually countries have decades of hardship as they fight for their legitimacy back post-default. The US has had a good run, and it may not happen soon, but it will happen someday. It's the natural order of economies. And when that happens, at least for a little while, like the Venezuelan, the citizens of the United States will need Bitcoin too. Maybe they won't need it forever, but they'll sure be happy they had it as an option. https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
>Non si è mai visto l’azionario scendere su un arco di 20 anni.
MMT says: spend away, don't worry about debt. Hyperinflation is not going to happen. This time is different Lebanon acted MMT out with predictable results.
> Just out of honest curiosity, do you have any sources that indicate that economics has improved?
Not sure about the exact development, but short-term predictions have been relatively reliable. Long-term often not so much. But you can't even forecast the weather accurately beyond 14 days, so, economics outperforms meterology.
> Because mainstream economists certainly did not see the 2007-2008 economic crash coming.
That is not true at all. Many credible economists did see it coming (e.g. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 - all of which decently summarized here).
Highlights:
> Godley and others in April 2007 predicted output growth "slowing down almost to zero sometime between now and 2008."
> "Recession Looms for the U.S. Economy in 2007" (Baker, 2006)
> ”the bubble will burst… America holds record mortgage debt in a declining housing market…Rising debt-service payments will further divert income from new consumer spending. Taken together, these factors will further shrink the “real” economy, drive down those already declining real wages, and push our debt-ridden economy into Japan-style stagnation or worse.” (2006)
The current narrative has been created because a) some people were wrong and because b) it is a narrative which suits parties looking for hand-outs (banks) to pretend this was some unforeseen unpredictable shock, like an earthquake (see this book).
There are three problems with predicting crises. First, unlike metereological predictions, they are long-term and thus hard to time. Sure, maybe you can estimate that the housing market will collapse at some point, but should that prevent you from buying a house? What if it doesn't collapse untill 10 years have passed? Second, economies are affected by human behavior and external unpredictable events. Yes, the growth predictions for 2020 were off - were economists supposed to predict COVID? Third, the main difference between economics and natural science is that your findings influence behavior. If you can make a convincing argument that the housing market will crash next year, it will crash right now. If you say that the outlook is positive, the outcome is more likely to be positive.
> Even I could sense something was wrong in 2005, when houses were being sold & bought at a weirdly frantic rate. And that was just from literal street-level observations.
I mean, that is just nonesense. Such increases do not always have to result in a crash, and it is much more likely that you are suffering from confirmation bias. Plus, again, the timing is very important. Housing prices have increased even quicker since then and whilst I personally think a crash is likely, I could come back to this comment in 10 years and have to eat it because it then is completely wrong.
> it’s different this time
https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
All I'm gonna say is this.
>I know you've basically already made up your mind about this, but for others who might be interested:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_debt_crises
You're right.
>Let’s start with the definition of insolvency. An entity is insolvent when debts exceed assets. First off, the U.S. government owns hundreds of trillions worth of assets. The Institute for Energy Research (IER) estimated in 2013 that fossil fuel-related assets owned by the federal government are worth more than $150 trillion, more than ten times the national debt. Add in things like land, real estate and military equipment, and the government’s assets are likely well in excess of $200 trillion. In addition, current U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is around $18 trillion, on which the government has taxation authority.
And explain how used military equipment is supposed to add to GDP. Its an expense. No one would argue that a nation gets richer when it buys an aircraft carrier. By that logic we could simply boost GDP by spending 100% of our resources building and exploding artillery shells in Nevada and we'd have full employment, record GDP growth, AND NOTHING TO EAT.
*Edit: Was going to argue, easier to spam links
http://www.reinhartandrogoff.com https://www.amazon.ca/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
Mazeltov.
The Reinhart & Rogoff one is pretty good in this respect though it is a history of financial crises. Since you are an old man, it'll help you sleep.
lol.
1) College textbooks aren't under DoE approval.
2) My intermediate macroeconomics textbook was written by Mankiw, George Bush and Romney's economic advisor
3) You have evidently not been reading any textbooks
4) FED interest rates were a reaction to the market failing not the cause. (http://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2002/january/fekderal-funds-discount-rate-2001)
5) Your view of the market is not warranted by history (http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640)
I was being facetious. Nothing is ever really different, history repeats itself a lot.
> His tax plan is regressive (and also completely insane)
by regressive you mean fair. everyone pays 10% after the first $36K of income - regardless of source. No loop holes or special favors for the ultra rich or corporations. Or are you for the us vs. them tax policy we've had and clearly doesn't work?
> He seems very eager for a ground war in Syria and potentially Iran
He recognizes the reality of the situation created by Bush and followed by mishandling by Obama. Did you not see the news today about how Iran is violating Obama's deal with them?
> He is vehemently anti-choice and anti-LGBT
He believes that abortion is murder. If one believes that abortion is murder, it only follows that it should be illegal. But, if you understood his view of the role of Federal vs. state: you'd understand that with both LGBT and abortion, he believes that states should decide - that's more democratic that 9 un-elected judges deciding for us.
> He's a religious nutjob
So was Abraham Lincoln and MLK... go ahead, read their speeches and learn about them.
> He wants to abolish worthwhile government agencies (IRS, EPA)
Under his tax plan there is no need for the IRS, therefore it is no longer worthwhile. The EPA has been granted far too much power. They should not be allowed effectively create law, that is Congress' job. They should be little more than aboard which works with Congress to pass legislation.
> He wants to return to the gold standard
why do you fear gold? Here is a fantastic read! I disagree with the "what to do about it" section in the end, but the historical information was great!
> He's just as hardcore as Trump on deportation and banning Muslim immigration
I'm not even sure where you get this idea! Trump says he wants to round up and deport, I've never heard Cruz say anything of the sort. But I did see him at the Mexican border handing out gift baskets (soccer balls and things) to the refugee children. I believe that Palin just brought that up on Friday night to contrast Cruz from Trump.
> Unlike Trump and Sanders, he's funded by tons of shady super-PAC money...
super pacs do not concern me. Only one candidate did not get on his knees before the unzipped fly of big corn in Iowa - and then won the state! Bernie and Trump both were slobbing on that cob...
> In repeatedly trying to shut down the federal government...
Actually a Senator can not shut down the government... but what ever. I agreed with his efforts.
> The Planned Parenthood vendetta is stupid, illogical, and based on blatant lies
I humbly disagree, the videos show quite a bit of circumstantial evidence of criminal conduct by violating several Federal laws.
> His extremism also shows that he's not willing to try to represent his full constituency (not everyone in Texas supports far-far-right policies... he's supposed to represent those people too)
No politician can possibly live up to that standard. I do not support everything that any politicians has ever done...
> He wants elections for SCOTUS judges. Some strict constitutionalist he is
please cite a reference to this.
> He lies constantly in debates, interviews, etc. Seriously, check out his PolitiFact
> Unlike Trump, he might just have the intellect and Washington savvy to enact some of his batshit crazy plans
I agree with the first 17/19ths of your statement. I omit the phrase "batshit crazy".
> It hasn't been definitively proven than he isn't the Zodiac killer
It hasn't been definitively proven that Bernie isn't the Crypt Keeper...
>let the market do it's job and it will.
http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
Or we could do what has data behind it like stimulus.
🧸 It's 🧠 Thinky Brens Time 🧠 - with BEAR FACTS! 🧸
Many people imagine that Prof. Robert Shiller's 'CAPE10' measure is a tool for timing the market.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
When the CAPE10 is high, the market is about to crash, surely? Not so!
As any old grizzly will tell you, the CAPE is a tool for figuring out probable long-term returns, not a timing guide! CAPE10 has been found to predict 90% of the variation in future 10-year returns from stock market investment.
So what kind of return can you expect if you recently invested at the peak, and 'diamond hands' hold all the way to the year 2032, after ten years of your life have passed?
But isn't the CAPE based on mere history? Whereas now we live in an amazing future, with lasers, spaceships, deadly plague and digital money for dogs, and a market that only goes up? The book 'THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT', which covers 800 years of financial history, suggests otherwise.
There's also reason to believe you might be waiting til 2037 to see your 'mad gainz' start to begin!
Lyn Alden has an interesting article here if you'd like to read more:
https://www.lynalden.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio/
🥳🧸🎉🧸🎉🥳 Enjoy the Thursday Crash fellow bers! It's party time! 🥳🧸🎉🧸🎉🥳
>Your math is off. First of all they’re earning 10%.
And you are ignoring inflation in a thread where the topic is inflation.
>There’s no traditional bubble to pop.
So you're saying "this time is different."
>If home prices collapse most buyers will just stay put-it’s what we saw when covid hit before the fed bailout.
So after arguing people are buying houses to make money you're arguing they will intentionally lose orders of magnitude more.
>but there aren’t scores of 20 year old college kids who bought a Back Bay condo on their part time guitar center salary like the last crash.
I never understood the "let's blame poor people for a >$10,000,000,000,000 crash and global financial crisis" meme. It's ignores all the bank fraud, ignores credit agency fraud and failures, ignores speculation and gambling by banks and other large investors, ignores securitization, ignores predatory lending, and seems based more on bigotry than anything else.
It's the equivalent of Texas Republicans blaming their blackouts on solar and other renewable energy.
Spoiler: there’s a book about decision making failures called “This Time Will Be Different”
Edit: https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
So you're saying you do not know what it's worth, do not understand it, and do not think it's not a bubble. Alright then. Maybe this time it'll be different. https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
> this time it'll be very very different
https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640
*sigh*
>Social Security which, barring an act of God or congressional deauthorization, is ironclad.
So then you are basically admitting on the open market the government's debt ain't worth shit. And because the government has taken on debt to the tune of $4.8 trillion to pay out SS, I'd say we're getting a raw deal. I can tell you are fooled quite easily by BS accounting tricks, so I'll suggest some reading that might open your eyes on to how common this shit is and how dangerous the ramifications are, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
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