Thanks for the link, there is a link in my forum too but I will also analyze recent data and give a commentary. Sornette, one of the authors is an amazing econophysicist and actually predicted bubbles in the stock market before. Here is main work, it is not just about crashes but understand markets from a mathematical point of view:
https://www.amazon.com/Why-Stock-Markets-Crash-Financial/dp/0691175950
Here is the post for archival purposes:
Author: Time_Value_of_Money
Content:
>The underlying conditions that drove BCH up and BTC down in price last weekend do not exist this weekend. Namely, last weekend, there was an imbalance of on-chain transactions between BCH and BTC (in BCH's favor) building up from Tuesday, November 07 to Friday, November 10. When the imbalance hit a critical point, the prices corrected as nature abhors a vacuum. This imbalance is actually in BTC's favor at the moment.
>I will not reveal my precise indicator - as it is proprietary - but read Didier Sornette's book "Why <del>Stock</del> Markets Crash" to understand how the underlying state of a complex system determines how it behaves when faced with critical events.
Here is the post for archival purposes:
Author: Time_Value_of_Money
Content:
>The underlying conditions that drove BCH up and BTC down in price last weekend do not exist this weekend. Namely, last weekend, there was an imbalance of on-chain transactions between BCH and BTC (in BCH's favor) building up from Tuesday, November 07 to Friday, November 10. When the imbalance hit a critical point, the prices corrected as nature abhors a vacuum. This imbalance is actually in BTC's favor at the moment.
>I will not reveal my precise indicator - as it is proprietary - but read Didier Sornette's book "Why <del>Stock</del> Markets Crash" to understand how the underlying state of a complex system determines how it behaves when faced with critical events.
Here is the post for archival purposes:
Author: Time_Value_of_Money
Content:
>The underlying conditions that drove BCH up and BTC down in price last weekend do not exist this weekend. Namely, last weekend, there was an imbalance of on-chain transactions between BCH and BTC (in BCH's favor) building up from Tuesday, November 07 to Friday, November 10. When the imbalance hits a critical point, the prices corrected as nature abhors a vacuum. This imbalance is actually in BTC's favor at the moment.
>I will not reveal my precise indicator - as it is proprietary - but read Didier Sornette's book "Why <del>Stock</del> Markets Crash" to understand how the underlying state of a complex system determines how it behaves when faced with critical events.
Math doesn't need all these things to be modeled directly. That is the beauty of math. Econophysics works amazingly well simply because it looks at the data and creates mathematical models to make predictions based only on price because all the things you mentioned actually are expressed on price. It works. I write algos for a living that use mathematical models like this one and I can show they are predictive from a statistical point of view. Sornette has predicted crashes in the past. We don't want to believe that humans act as physical forces but they do, in particular when you look at many agents. They act exactly like interacting physical forces and these things can be modeled with physics methods and techniques.
Someone literally wrote an entire book about how prices can inflate simply because prices are inflating:
https://www.amazon.com/Why-Stock-Markets-Crash-Financial/dp/0691175950