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It's not the Oroville forecast that you should be looking, but rather the forecast for the mountains above Oroville (where the inflow to Lake Oroville comes from). For example, the forecast for Quincy show Rain/Snow for 12 of the next 15 days.

So how much can the emergency spillway handle? Well, it's like the time I was flying in a twin-engine plane and one of engines quit running. I asked the pilot how far we could get on one engine? He said "All the way to scene of the crash."

https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:95965.1.99999

Wunderground has around 5 inches over the next week.

As long as that doesn't increase to over an inch per day for more than one day there shouldn't be any more use of the emergency spillway.

If you are finding the video keeps stopping, the Periscope mobile app seems to do a much better job than the web player. Especially if you are on a spotty wi-fi connection.

iPhone: https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id972909677?mt=8

Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=tv.periscope.android

> theory but no proof

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/oxymoron

> Any scientific theory must be based on a careful and rational examination of the facts.

http://www.livescience.com/21491-what-is-a-scientific-theory-definition-of-theory.html

Weather forecast for Quincy, CA - rain starting Wednesday and continuing through the end of the month.

All the rain that falls in Quincy comes down to Lake Oroville so it's a good place to pick to get a sense of what the coming inflow will look like. This is going to rival the tsunami in Japan in terms of scale and shock value. It's time to put together an evacuation plan if you don't already have one.