I think that part of it is the winner's curse. In order to maximize his salary, a free agent needs to solicit bids from all teams, even if he has a preference for staying with his current team (or going to another specific team). But in doing so, there's a decent chance that at least one team will, based on their incomplete information, offer the player more than he's worth. If that happens, and the player's current team doesn't value him as highly as that offer, then the player has a decision to make: whether to switch teams, or to essentially admit that he was bluffing and take a lesser offer from his current team. And plenty of players have done both.
Going back to your original question, I'd say that degrees matter. Let's take the example of Cobb. He'll be 25 by the time next season starts, so assuming he signs a deal in the range of 4 to 6 years, this could be his only big deal (or he could get one more). Let's say the Packers offer him a 4-year, $40 million deal, and the Jaguars offer him a 5-year, $70 million deal (I'd say these contracts are roughly on either ends of the type of contract Cobb might sign). I couldn't possibly blame Cobb for taking an extra $30 million to sign with a team, even if there's a decent likelihood that Cobb won't be as good catching passes from Bortles as he is from Rodgers. Remember, this contract will probably be the bulk of Cobb's lifetime earnings, so it's a decision that impacts him more than just the numbers he puts up over the next few years.
In addition, it's really difficult to project who might be good or bad a few years from now. Four seasons ago (2010), the Jets, Steelers, Chiefs, Giants, Bears, Falcons, Saints, and Buccaneers won 10+ games, and the Bengals, Broncos, Cowboys, Lions, Seahawks, and 49ers had losing records.
You have a few options
Like Death-By-Circlejerk linked, you can get access to DirecTV's NFL web stream package IF you can prove to them you live in an area where you cannot have a dish installed. Unfortunately there aren't many locations like this in the US
Domestic Gamepass. $100/season. You get access to replays of all games the day after, as well as a condensed version and coaches tape. Highly recommend it if you are unable to watch live games, or are a big enough fan to watch replays.
International Gamepass (price varies, minimum typically $130/season). The international version also shows live games on top of replays. You can purchase and watch it by VPNing to another country using a service such as Private Internet Access. Once your stream is up you can close your VPN so you don't have to worry about bandwidth.
NFL2GO (roughly $30/season). Currently closed to new members but it may reopen. It's a bootleg service that basically provides the same features as the international Gamepass. Slightly risky as it will likely be taken down by the NFL at some point, but it is a high quality service.
/r/nflstreams threads are made for each live game and people share bootleg streams in each. A good last resort resource.
NBC sports streams all of their games for free on their website (Sunday night games)
CBS will be streaming their Thursday night games as well, but they only have 6 or 7 this year (NFL Network has the rest).
Verizon has a deal with the NFL that provides some mobile perks but I'm unsure of the details, you may want to look into that if you have a tablet with a 4G plan with Verizon.
> 1 . Tell me something that you are really optimisitc about your team for this coming season?
I have a good feeling about Tannehill and Wallace's chemistry this year. Tannehill's ascension to a deep passing threat is key to his evolution into a top tier QB.
> 2 . What team is a matchup nightmare for your team?
The Bills. They got our number by shutting us out last season and stripping us of our golden saddle. 19-0 defeat after riding high on a NE win brings you back to reality real fast.
> 3 . Name one player that has potential, but just can't seem to get over the metaphorical hump?
Lamar Miller. He's ridiculously fast and agile but can't block. Every time he gets the ball I hold my breath. He'll have breakout runs only to have the ball stripped out 40 yards down field. He needs to get back to the fundamentals of being a back.
> 4 . Any aspect of the game you can share some knowledge about that the average fan wouldn't know?
Miami is perceived to fall to 7-9 to follow our 8-8 season last year. To give perspective of this accuracy, the Patriots were expected to go 9-7 and miss the playoffs last year.
The Overconfidence Effect rears its head every offseason, particularly around the NFL draft. Teams are routinely willing to pay a premium to move up in the draft, or willing to pay exorbitant amounts for players in free agency, based on the idea that they have identified a player whose value has not been fully recognized by other teams. Yet study after study shows that both the draft and free agency are an (educated) crapshoot, and it's generally a bad idea to put all your eggs in one basket.
Do you read Sports Illustrated or ESPN? Those will have stories about NFL teams and individuals, and usually good writing. They each have printed magazines, but there is a lot of free content at their sites.
Not noob questions. This is the worlds greatest game. More complex than Chess. Bill Belichick has the world's largest collection of books on football. His favorite book is "The Art of War", not ostensibly about football.
Michael Holley has written 3 books about the patriots, a truly great team. War Room, Patriot Reign and one about tedy. Must reads by any fan of this, the Greatest Game.
keep studying, it is a lifetime passion. At the end, you will never know as much as belichick.
Well, Mr Mozart stood at a piano at age 3, clinked away, and music came out.
You know? Peace.
Not a film, but this is a great place to start.
Football's West Coast Offense.. It's a little dated but many teams in the NFL still run a lot of these plays and concepts. And Chris Brown's SmartFootball is an excellent choice.
Have you read Kirwan's Keep Your Eye Off the Ball? If so, how do they compare? I'm just finishing it and am wondering if I should do Smart Football next.