What are /r/SecretHitler's favorite Products & Services?

From 3.5 billion Reddit comments

I got a pack of manila coin envelopes from Amazon. They open at the end instead of the side but work great.

JAM PAPER #4 Coin Business Commercial Envelopes - 3 x 4 1/2 - Brown Kraft Manila - 25/Pack https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01DAKG5T6/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_i_HbIrCbPE5G65P

First of all you have to download the messenger Telegram and create an account. Then you can search for users: type "thesecrethitlerbot", click the bot and click "Start". Now you have to add the bot to an existing Telegram group. If you then type /help the bot will explain the rest to you :)

That's the official account! The envelopes are just regular #4 coin envelopes. You can find them on amazon or other office supplies places.

You can find the program, which is written in R, here (keep in mind that I'm very new to coding and that I don't really know the conventions, so it probably won't be easy to understand).

I gave a brief explanation in a reply to u/ic_engineer (tl;dr: it just uses introductory statistics). You can also find the program here if you care to try to decipher my spaghetti code :)

Thanks! I wrote it on Repl.it: https://repl.it/@Lonelyboi2718/Secret-Hitler-Prediction-combo-testing-method.

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I've just added a few comments at the top of "main.r" to briefly explain how the inputs work and stuff like that; hopefully they're clear enough. Just keep in mind that it's more or less calibrated for how my friends and I play, and so it might be slightly less accurate in your games.

Haha no it's not machine learning. I started working on this while taking introductory stats and programming courses, so I definitely don't have the technical knowledge to do set up a machine learning algorithm (if that was even a reasonable approach).

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How it works is that I've defined a model for how players would likely act in different situations. It's basically just a big spreadsheet with every possible combination of:

(1) Number of cards the president draws

(2) President's ID

(3) Chancellor's ID

A relative probability is assigned for every (reasonable) outcome resulting from that situation (i.e. what policy ultimately gets passed and what the president and chancellor claim they did).

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I then list every possible combination of secret IDs. For each one, using the model I defined, I can calculate the probability that a given round plays out the way it did. I define a random variable for the number of liberal policies remaining in the draw pile, which I update after each round. Under the assumption that each round's probability is independent (besides the changes in the draw pile, which I keep track of), I can then ultimately calculate the probability of the whole game playing out the way it did given a certain combination of IDs. I then use Bayes theorem to calculate the probability of each combination of IDs given the way the game has unfolded up to that point.

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If you care to try to decipher my spaghetti code, I wrote the program in R on Repl.it:

https://repl.it/@Lonelyboi2718/Secret-Hitler-Prediction-combo-testing-method

I love the idea of spreading the love that is Secret Hitler, however I don't want you to break any laws in the process!

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

> NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.

(A commercial use is one primarily intended for commercial advantage or monetary compensation)

Using Patreon to make site this would violate the Creative Commons License. :(

I completely agree you should be paid for doing development work, but this should be as a hobby, not as a job!

I'm very sorry! You're free to post a link to a github and ask for people to contribute! I'd love to myself!

This project is already up and running on secrethitler.io. the original secrethitler.online github is no longer available as far as I know. .online was made by Kyle Coburn, and this is the only thing I could find: https://libraries.io/github/kylecoburn/secret-hitler

I used chipboard sheets and spray adhesive and it turned out great!