Personal opinion:
People are more stoked on Lightning. Segwit was just one of those things people thought "Eh, I'll check it out eventually". It didn't 'feel' like it reduced fees enough to be worth risking some new tech. Of course it turns out segwit is easy and doesn't limit you at all, but it's just one of those things that was like the dentist telling you to floss. "Yeah yeah, I will".
Lightning... It's different. I don't think it will replace the way people are used to, but some people, the techy people, will run with it, and will love it. It will eventually bleed over into the more casual user once it's simpler to explain, better understood, bugs and beta-tester-tier problems are smoothed.
The hard truth: I don't think lightning will beat Credit cards etc unless they prove viable for microtransations. I also don't think the more 'casual' user will adopt a 2nd layer solution like Lightning if an altcoin like LTC, BCH etc just works the 'good old way we like'.
Bitcoin is somewhere in the early majority of adoption in my opinion. Lightning will be in that 2.5% for some time. I've tried once to set up a lightning node and failed. Ill be trying again tomorrow hopefully with a different method. Most people don't have patience with proof of concept tech so... The early adopter gets the channel.
Right now a lot of people are 'finally getting in'. I'd say we're at the peak of the adoption chart. Near the middle when people who generally are into new tech but aren't bleeding edge start getting in. This is when your construction worker buddy, your aging uncle, the secretary at work starts getting interested. Same thing with instant messaging software, Facebook, 'getting a blog'. Saying that, we are going to have a huge crash. Easily could go down 75%, and it will be a long slow bleed when it does.
Big question is, 75% from when/where? It's going to be a stressful next few months, so if anyone needs some good adult diapers I got a guy.