hey guys I've been busy this week and like a lot of other people, I'm pretty much fading this week because the pricing is sharp and the field is too stacked. not to mention I've been pretty meh at golf lately and I wanna focus more on nascar and some projects I'm working on.
I do have the stats cruncher for you guys: http://www.filedropper.com/bridestonestatscruncher
The H2H Series Match-Up between me and /u/joshengleman was absolutely epic last night. Feel free to ask us any questions about our line-ups and/or why I am better than Josh at DFS.
A note to Josh: if you're going to bring a gun to a knife fight, consider loading it.
Tonight's <strong>FanDuel Survey</strong> is up - it's only 2 questions. Please use first and last names for all players you enter so it's easier for me to sort the data. I will post the results here.
Not exactly a writeup, but here's something I've been working on. I made projections by collecting each players' game log for each fantasy stat/minute. Using random generation via normal inverse cumulative distribution (a bell curve based on the st dev) I simulated each player 1000x. I also randomized minutes, but centered the distribution around projected minutes. I added some slight skews for O/U and DvP but nothing major
I found Jonathan Bales' latest book on NFL DFS, "Fantasy Football For Smart People: The Hidden Psychology of Winning DFS" to be the best and most interesting regarding NFL DFS. He also goes into game theory and its relation to ownership percentages. Honestly besides Bales' books which are all pretty good, I haven't found any other book on Amazon related to DFS to be that helpful.
Alright guys, the new projections and plays are up.
Ty Lawson is a really intriguing play for the night. He's had a couple games in a row that were subpar for his price point, but he's matched up against the Sixers. If there's any team in the league for someone to bounce back to, it's Philly.
Any thoughts? And good luck!
EDIT: Here are the bargain bin plays for today as well as 2 potential lineups
linestar for DK is OK for finding where there is value. They have a lineup generator too but I've not used it much. https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.atlasappco.draftkingsdailyfootball&hl=en
It sounds like what you're talking about is projection, not optimization, though they're of course related. Anyways, what's your statistics knowledge? Just curious if you have an actual plan here. Regression?
IMO there are so many people doing this (regression, at least. If you have a novel statistical approach in mind that could be interesting) the amount of value added per time commitment is minimal. The real question is what do you do with the projections once you have them. Based on discussions on this sub I started a Google Group, you can see the "mission statement" here.
Even though the group is explicitly not about making a projection system, if you want to bounce ideas off us you're welcome to join. For example, having a regression available could be useful for us, maybe the residual terms could help estimate fantasy-point variance.
This is my spreadsheet for the week. It's not quite as good as taco's normally are, but it breaks the players down by certain statistics. I've weighted the formula for overall ranking to have Birdie or Better % extremely high, due to their being no cut, creating a premium on birdies/eagles for scoring.
The formula is in cell T5 if you'd like to change the weighting. Course history is on the spreadsheet for the last 5 years, but overall ranking doesn't encompass it, so make sure you eyeball that. (Too many players haven't played it/only played it once). Doesn't include stats for the Euros.
Stats Cruncher now up
Sorry only had time to make it with the PGA players, there are a lot of guys missing from overseas and whatnot. Even Tiger was missing, the hell pgatour.com stats? He's played more than 4 tourneys this year
If you don't have excel you can look here: https://slack-files.com/files-pub/T03EDU69G-F04UJ35C4-4ac7bee97a/pasted_image_at_2015_05_20_08_52_am.png
So I spent way too much time on this, but here goes nothing
I call this the super cruncher. some of it is calculated, a lot of it was just my opinion thrown in there. Think of it like Madden ratings, lol. You can also change the numbers to whatever you'd like if you think I under/over-valued somebody. The cash/gpp numbers are just my personal 'rankings' and salary has nothing to do with it. Cash being most likely to make the cut, and gpp being most likely to place high. I have it preset to cash game weights, but if you want to do gpp, switch high ownership with low ownership, bump down top 20 for win, and switch cash and gpp rankings.
Assuming all of the contests listed currently fill up, then yes, you are correct regarding the payouts. Since we're a group of college students that just finished building this out of our dorm rooms, our budget is currently limited with respect to freerolls (but you can expect them soon!).
Our third party credit card processor is Stripe (they handle all of the payments). You can check out their site here: https://stripe.com/
We do plan on implementing Paypal shortly.
I didn't really have a memorable bad beat for DFS until this happened last night:
Credit goes to /u/marktx over at /r/mma
Needless to say I went from a $700 winner to nothing in a matter of that <1/4 second.
And finally my super cruncher is now live. Lemme know what you think. Recommended weights for gpp: Win- 10 Top 20- 3 Stats- 4 Course History- 3 Form- 7 and cash: Win- 1 Top 20- 10 Stats- 5 Course History- 3 Form- 6. Or set it however you feel is best.
Hit me up with any questions you have here
Stats cruncher now live. Let me know if you have any questions or notice an error. The default weights were done real quick so tinker to your heart's content.
Stay tuned for the super cruncher!
Bonus sheet for my late night warriors. This crunches current form, stats, top 20 and win odds, and course history together.
Here's a preview pic if you don't have excel
the first version had an error where I forgot to reverse proximity and approaches 200-225 for accuracy. It kept the error I fixed after version 2.
second version had an accidental * instead of +, causing those with high SG Putting to be hugely overvalued
The correct file is this: http://www.filedropper.com/zurichstatcruncher_2
Its not just DFS, but fantasy sports in general. A lot of "smaller" payment processing companies dont want the risk of having to deal with anything even remotely questionable. Its not even just gambling either, Stripe for example won't even process porn, which is completely legal. https://stripe.com/us/prohibited-businesses
For VPN, i've used Private Internet Access (PIA) for years and have never had an issue with speed or my cable provider. Very= user friendly and a plethora of connections you can use all over the world.
I was able to get it working on the android app using the fanduel app and SuperVPN. I think that since your phone has location services you're good to use it with a VPN, otherwise it appears that they've blocked most vpns so that people in states where it is illegal can't use it
I don't know how to get solver to spit out more than 1 lineup. To get lineups that actually work you just need to set some constraints in solver. You need to set it so that you have a minimum of 1 and maximum of 3 for PG, SG, SF and PF, a minimum of 1 and a maximum of 2 C, a minimum of 3 and a maximum of 4 for PG + SG (G), a minimum of 3 and a maximum of 4 for SF+PF (F), and a total of 8 players.
edit: Here's a simple optimizer I made last year.. The constraints are on the far right.
I do not know where you are getting that info about it missing. Everything I look at shows it hitting directly.
heres the one from last week. I'm trying to find some tips for the course or what the caddies are saying its gonna take to win this weekend, but i think its a little too early for that
I put together a Course history spreadsheet with advanced stats. I was hoping I could find some correlations between statistics and place, but nothing is quite there yet. Here's the data if anybody is interested in taking a look.
ESPN has their corners ranked 31st and I doubt their safeties are any better. Their front 7 isn't awful, which only makes this stack that much more attractive!
I've compiled a lot of game logs for many sports (including NFL) and sell them on Gumroad. I think they are fairly priced for the amount of time it takes/would take to get these.
Hate to hijack this but here's a downloadable CSV with every game log for every player including standard, PPR, DraftKings and Fanduel scoring.
You can download it here.
I don't think you should be looking at Stripe (there's a reason FD/DK use PayPal. If you look at the 'gambling' section on their banned businesses page- 'fantasy sites that provide cash prizes' is strictly prohibited. I'm sure you wouldn't want your user funds freezed.
Agreed, I won a Step 1 ticket with my LU last night in a freeroll on DK, squeaking in by a point (Bumgarner almost cost me the loss!) with a good pick of Ackley as 2.7k punt and it paid off handsomely for me.
I was struggled with MLB ever since I played them, I never won it in a GPP play or whatever. Now ever since I joined /r/dfssports, I started to improve considerably. Like fowler2380 said, big thanks to the people who helped post your insights and helping out with the awesome advice! :)
Tune in tonight to IG Live @dgcourtroom for the #1 DFS show in the land! #1 slack and tournaments in DFS https://www.powtoon.com/online-presentation/cuP25FZWBPT/?mode=movie
See everyone tonight and hopefully soon in Slack!
Check out the daily plays here: http://www.dailypucktalk.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/dpt-daily-fantasy-hockey-picks-03-27-15/
Here is Elctrc_eye's daily podcast: http://mixlr.com/elctrc_eye/showreel/elctrc_eye-on-mixlr-59/
Good luck tonight, folks!!
just FYI- chalk is good for cash games (cash games are usually 50/50s, double ups, triple ups.. where you just have to beat an "average" to win.
GPPs are "guaranteed prize pools" which are your big dollar tournaments, like the Millionaire Maker.
If you're new to DFS, my advice - try the beginner 50/50s, single entry or multi entry for cheap enough.. 2-5bucks. Then maybe play any single entry GPP (like 3-12 bucks at most).. assuming a sensible bankroll. If you're loaded,then YOLO.. otherwise, play smart and start slow.
Also, look into more than just Draftkings and Fan Duel.. Yahoo has DFS as well, and they pay out more overall. But also Fantasydraft.com, also Ive heard of Stathero.com (I cannot talk to these last two outlets, but they are something a bit different than traditional DK and FD stuff)
You could also tune in to the Fantasy channel on Sirius XM.. free trial for 3 months:
car or device.
What language do you work with? VBA in excel? Udacity is a pretty cool website that offers online courses, most are Python based. Here's their intro course. I use Python with DataNitro so I can script Excel with Python to build lineups. Been working pretty well recently...
Hey man, I emailed you last night, just wanted to make sure you received it. I tried in both Chrome and IE, and both times once uploaded, I received an error message that told me to go to http://datatables.net/manual/tech-notes/7
ESPN WR/CB Matchup Week 8
Courtesy of u/Bossdonturoveli
I have a VPN. The problem is Fanduel is now trying to verify my account.....
EDIT: Okay. What's wrong with my VPN? I am using Unlocator (has worked in the past to watch blackout ), but when I go to a site like it knows exactly where I am. Is my VPN broken???
Could you not use a VPN? I use Private Internet Access a lot to watch American content (I'm in Canada) and sometimes I leave it connected to a restricted state when I go to set my lineups and it won't let me access FD. I imagine it would work the other way around.
> I was able to get it working on the android app using the fanduel app and SuperVPN. I think that since your phone has location services you're good to use it with a VPN, otherwise it appears that they've blocked most vpns so that people in states where it is illegal can't use it
I've read 3 of Bales' books and they are all awesome and super informative, especially for beginner DFSers. The first one I read was "Fantasy Football (and baseball) for Smart People" which is only $6 for the digital version.
We just opened up to NY on DRAFT! Check us out
LineStar has Yahoo DFS assistance apps for iOS and Android. Also available on our website. Yahoo is a great place to play!
If you want notifications on your phone, checkout the RG app: https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/rg-lineups/id1023917238?mt=8
or if android
Both FanDuel and DraftKings have apps on the Play store and they haven't been taken down yet. Maybe the issue with Google's TOS is with integrating DFS with the rest of Yahoo fantasy sports platform?
The full version of the DK app should be in the Play Store now. Can you try clicking and installing this and let me know what happens?