What are /r/DreamWasTaken's favorite Products & Services?

Imagine supporting Dream because he mathematically has a 1/7.5T chance to be innocent.

Here is a Scratch program to experience the numbers for yourself: https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/443215577/fullscreen/

These minutes' worth of footage contains chances that go into the trillions. If you want to simulate just one of the two nearly impossible odds, here is a website that runs the chances of getting 41 pearl trades in the number of trades dream has. Understand that the luck they discuss isn't about the number of hours streamed, or the number of times dream has gone into the nether, but the chances that A outcome happens in B scenarios.

To get an idea of how low dreams chances are, (And this isn’t even counting blaze rods) this tool was made on scratch

https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/443215577/

Every “trial” simulates the same amount of trades dream did throughout all of his streams. On average, running this test will give you 42 (the amount dream got) after running 7.5 trillion trials. Also keep in mind, this is saying the amount of pearl trades, not the amount dropped. The amount dropped can vary from 4-8 every time.

Dream has known this is coming for two months and he actually provided his counterpoints which are included were refuted in the Geosquare video(https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/443215577/)

He was the one who made the issue public by attacking the speedrun mods first on the speedrunning discord and latter on twitter. A week ago he made a tweet on his second acount demanding that the findings of the investigation be released! How can you say that he was blindsided by this?? If he didnt care he wouldnt be firing off tweets faster than trump. His first action after the video released was the same thing he did when the allegations first began. He insulted the speedrunning mods and sent his fans to harass them. And that is the main problem a lot of people have with dream! Once again he is using his platform to attack those who dare to disagree with him.

If you want to get a feel for how "lucky" that would be then take a look at this amazing tool.

https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/443215577/

So far I've done 8 million runs, the average is 12.4, the highest number is 33, Dream got 41.

Edit: Up to 15 million now, still tops out at 33.

Edit 2: 35 million runs, the new top is 35

They're pretty generic copper compression gloves for arthritis so you can find them from many sellers, here is a link to one of many places to get them on Amazon.

I'm having difficulty posting, this is a test to see if my Reddit is just not working

EDIT: this worked so I guess my answer was too long. Time for a paste service

Edit 2: here's my response, put it in a markdown editor or something: https://hastebin.com/aripelopib.csharp

The statistics are actually really fuckin' simple you smoothbrain. There's a 4.7% chance to get an ender pearl and dream got 41 pearls in 263 tries.

The simulation I linked above runs those exact numbers to prove how fucking stupid you are for still believing he didn't cheat lmao go ahead and try it

https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/443215577/

It's not like they cherry picked 5 streams. It was 5 streams in a row. To break it down super simple. There is a 4.7% chance to recieve an ender pearl from a trade. After 5 consecutive streams Dream did 263 trades and got 41 ender pearls. Here is a simulation with those exact numbers. See how many runs it takes you to get over 40 https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/443215577/

And then we can worry about the equally insane blaze rods after that.

You really don't need a statistics expert to see what is happening. Here is a good visual that can be used to essentially conclude that he cheated 100%

https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/443215577/

This is using the exact drop rate as the game for ender pearls and in a half a million simulations the highest I got was 32. Someone ran it for 1.7 billion iterations and peaked at 39. Dream got 41. This doesn't even consider the blaze rods.

It's the fact he got such ridiculous odds on BOTH unrelated drops.

You're a fucking idiot. This isn't "too lucky". The chances are so astronomically unrealistic that this just isn't an argument.

And yes, the "no evidence to support it" IS STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY. That itself is evidence.

Your shitty argument would be valid if it was them criticizing a SINGLE run being incredibly good, but they analyzed MULTIPLE STREAMS, the drop rates were altered my dude.

Want to know HOW unrealistic this shit is? Here's a simple script on scratch to give you an idea:

https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/443215577/

Here, run this simulation. Mathematical models are more accurate, but since you wanted a test https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/443215577/

Also they went into the methods that blaze rods and ender pearl drop rates are calculated. In addition, they measured drop rates over a week of streaming.

And no, you wouldn't be able to this for any speed runner. They tested a LOT of other speedrunners and found that Illumina was the second luckiest behind dream, but that even Illumina luck was WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY behind dream luck lol

They talk about this extensively in the pdf

"incredible statistical odds that I could have had the luck that I did over a few day period." there is no way you got 41 out of 263 these are just the numbers no biases. https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/443215577/

People make mistakes. Saying he's too smart to make a mistake is saying he isn't human.

If you ask me dream should just apologize and move on. The chance of him being innocent just by chance is 7 times less likely than finding a twelve eye portal.

It would've been more believable if he found a 12 eye portal on RSG.

Here is a third party tool simulating dreams odds that can help visualize his odds.

https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/443215577

It's also important to note that his odds are only slightly boosted, but it's so consistent that those incredibly low odds come into play. So that probably plays into why he didn't think he'd get caught. His blaze drops average at about 2/3 instead of 1/2.

If you want to get a feel for how "lucky" that would be then take a look at this amazing tool.

https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/443215577/

So far I've done 8 million runs, the average is 12.4, the highest number is 33, Dream got 41.

Edit: Up to 15 million now, still tops out at 33.

Edit 2: 35 million runs, the new top is 35

If you want to get a feel for how "lucky" that would be then take a look at this amazing tool.

https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/443215577/

So far I've done 8 million runs, the average is 12.4, the highest number is 33, Dream got 41.

Edit: Up to 15 million now, still tops out at 33.

Edit 2: 35 million runs, the new top is 35

You do realize that Dream getting that amount of pearls would go down as the luckiest thing in human history by FAR, right?

https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/443215577/

This can help you visualize it

App is available for Download on Play Store through the link: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.mebenacorp.dream.team.sounds.mc.soundboard.george.mine.skeppy.craft.memes.manhunt.meme.free.funny.drista.hoyeon

it's important to understand what highly likely means, because out brains on an intuitive level don't understand that past around 1 in 100.

imagine every number, from 1 to 1 million (1,000,000) and 2 of those numbers are chosen at random, now try and guess them both correctly. Seriously, go to a site like random.org, write down a pair of numbers on a sheet of paper so you don't lie to yourself and then randomly generate 2 numbers and see if you got it right. Good luck

and now, what's insane is that dreams luck was 10 times less likely then the chance of getting both those numbers correct.

I hope this puts into perspective what 'highly likely' means.

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What are /r/DreamWasTaken's favorite Products & Services? From 3.5 billion Reddit comments

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What are /r/DreamWasTaken's favorite Products & Services?
From 3.5 billion Reddit comments