>Development and deployment of internet freedom and Great Firewall circumvention tools for the people of Hong Kong
Is the US going to sponsor NordVPN? It actually not bad, make freedomVPN, make it free, promote it throughout the world as the tool for freedom of speech, secretly do some PRISIM stuffs with it, profit?.
Joking asides, I imagine something like the spacex starlink system would be the perfect solution to circumvent China great firewall, albeit unnecessary.
If you are sincerely interested in learning more about this, I highly recommend Ahmed Rashid's journalistic magnum opus, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia, Second Edition https://www.amazon.com/dp/0300163681/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_i_h91xDb0XMD6EN.
Can't hope to elucidate a complex narrative in a few words, but a good portion of the reason why the US has been in Afghanistan and Iraq for so long comes down to international oil interests, consequences of the cold war, and Central Asian and Middle Eastern regional politics.
Check out the book. Hands down the most gripping nonfiction work I've had the pleasure to read.
Edit: to clarify, this book was first published in 2000. It is not an explanation of the wars, but a description of the geopolitical scene in Afghanistan written at a time before 9/11. Imo, it's incredible that Mr. Rashid was able to describe the structures and tensions which ended up explaining future wars.
Words from Russian MoD according to RT:
>In the areas of combat missions of Russian air fleet in Syrian skies, any airborne objects, including aircraft and unmanned vehicles of the [US-led] international coalition, located to the west of the Euphrates River, will be tracked by Russian ground and air defense forces as air targets
This is correct translation of Russian variant from this official page.
Turkey's comprehensive isolation in the international arena is the topic of this article by veteran journalist Semih Idiz. It looks at the Erdogan/Bahceli regime's motivation for their longstanding jingoist foreign policies, to please Islamist and ultranationalist domestic audiences, and at the lonely place to which these policies have taken Turkey.
With the accelerating decline of the Turkish currency, soaring inflation, ever worse polling numbers for the regime and elections upcoming within 18 months at the latest, the regime is desperate for anything it could present as a foreign policy success.
Inciting its core constituencies with another war of aggression by choice is one of the options considered in Ankara. However, economic reprieve can only be obtained by softening the international isolation of the country, an option entertained for a year now in Ankara. The article looks at the dilemma of the regime between these two options.
Hi, just to let you know you're in breach of the licence to use my image without giving attribution. Files on Wikimedia Commons typically use the Attribution-ShareAlike licence: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en.
I don't care for a file that took me 5 minutes to create but I noticed you don't attribute any of your images in your article and just wanted to let you know you ought to be doing so where required. Especially for photos.
If you read the Turkish media you would be under the impression Turkey is flourishing. If you actually look at the value of their money you would realize it's crumbled >30% in a single year . This is looking like the next Venezuela-style currency collapse.
One last thing. If you are interested please check out this week's 60 Minutes:
It highlights a school in my country that has successfully been sending pupils to Ivy League universities in the US. It was started by an American with familial connections to Somaliland and its a very valuable institution here. I have a baby cousin who goes there and so can vouch for the quality of education this school provides.
The link will not work for those outside the US, you use VPN (Browsec) or click below for a dailymotion trailer:
It airs this Sunday, I am very much looking forward to watching it.
The title is a bit of an exaggeration and the article definitely comes from a humanitarian rather than geopolitical point of view; however, I do think it indicates a future policy change with regards to KSA. While the US has supported KSA, over time the Obama administration seemed to have slowly distanced itself from KSA's actions in Yemen, backing off and decreasing certain times of kinds sales and changing intelligence policies. Tillerson seems like he could be a reversal of that.
If you have the time and interest, you can watch Tillerson's confirmation here to get a better idea of this and other changes that might occur in the next 4-8 years. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgXz8W9tHwo (10 hours.) There was a second part of it but I haven't been able to find it yet. If anyone has that, I'd appreciate it if you could provide a link.
EDIT: Here's an example of US arms support. Other reductions included decreasing (or banning?) cluster bomb sales. If you put "Yemen" in google news the policy of decrease becomes more obvious but I think the NYT article in this edit explains one of the bigger drops in the decline of support over time.
Rightly or wrongly, Israel sees a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat. In the face of their possible destruction, the question of the morality of killing scientists that personally don't deserve it doesn't really enter into their calculus.
Somewhat uniquely among countries thought of as "Western", Israel has long had targeted killing programs in the Mossad, Shin Bet, and earlier intelligence agencies which they've used for various purposes, starting with vengeance for the Holocaust on escaped Nazi war criminals, and continuing to the present day as we see in Iran.
I don't think you can look at this and understand it without understanding the mindset of the Israeli people and leadership. Not 75 years ago a concerted effort was made to wipe their people from the face of the earth, and that atrocity was followed up by immediate and continuous aggression from Arab and other surrounding powers through the early years of the Israeli state. Surrounded on all sides by powers that at various times have outweighed the Israelis militarily, they have taken whatever actions they thought necessary to continue their existence. I'd argue they want too far many times, but you can't question their purpose: to survive.
If you want to read more on this, a really good recent book on the history of these programs is Rise and Kill First by Ronen Bergman, who talked with many of the leaders of the intelligence agencies that carried out such actions.
Popular sentiment doesnt' fall out of the sky, it is shaped by years of pro-Israeli propaganda and lobbying which also exploited pre-existing Islamophobia. the anti-Muslim racist stereotypes of Hollywood for example have a lot to do with the bias. https://www.amazon.com/Reel-Bad-Arabs-Hollywood-Vilifies/dp/1566567521
More recently we saw far-right pro-Israeli leaders make common cause with far-right White Nationalists on issues such as the GroundZero mosque.
George Friedman is terrible at East Asian geopolitics. Absolutely terrible.
In his 1991 book that he published/authored, entitlted: "The Coming War with Japan", available on Amazon with a measley 3 star rating, he predicts US will go to war with Japan in the future. The guy has been wrong for 27 years and counting!
He doubled down on Japan by predicting in the next 100 year's book that Japan will be the Leader of Asia, and China/India somehow disappears from relevance from internal upheaval. A fiction sci-fi American nationalistic narrative.
What a complete farce.
The book "LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media" goes DEEP into this subject and came out last October. It's written extremely well and I would highly recommend it if you're looking to learn more about this.
The long and short is 'Memetic Warfare' is EXTREMELY important these days and has changed war as we know it.
>radical religious conservatives at home.
The same could be said about Israel - lets remember it wasn't a Palestinian who assassinated Rabin but an Israeli opposed to peace talks with the Palestinians (the assassin is treated as a hero in some corners of Israel https://www.haaretz.com/1.4995281 )
Also, in 2003 Iran sought to use the Iraq invasion as an opportunity to improve US-Iran relations. Iran's offer to make peace with Israel was spurned, in favor of imposing regime-change in Iran instead as Iran was labeled a member of the "Axis of Evil"
>The document lists a series of Iranian aims for the talks, such as ending sanctions, full access to peaceful nuclear technology and a recognition of its "legitimate security interests." Iran agreed to put a series of U.S. aims on the agenda, including full cooperation on nuclear safeguards, "decisive action" against terrorists, coordination in Iraq, ending "material support" for Palestinian militias and accepting the Saudi initiative for a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The document also laid out an agenda for negotiations, with possible steps to be achieved at a first meeting and the development of negotiating road maps on disarmament, terrorism and economic cooperation.
The idea that Iran was implacably opposed to Israel is a myth
It's pervasive. And although I think millenarian panic is par for the course throughout history, I'd cautiously concede that generational narcissism might be at least partially responsible for this overwhelming expectation of new dawns. Fukuyama talks about the doom-ridden fear of endpoints giving way to hopeful tomorrows. There's some solace even in Apocalypse.
I'm honestly not as interested in the societal aspect of apocalyptic thought as I am fascinated by the impact it has on the individual psyche. I think your point about neurological components is interesting---this is pretty removed from that framework but I recently picked up a pretty interesting book on the matter by a Jungian theorist.
Does a real good job of tying in the concerns of Apocalypse with political and social upheaval. It's a bit dated from a geopolitical standpoint since it was originally published in 2002, but it still provides insight.
Beyond the usual stuff regarding Belt and Road, this is a strategic move by China on multiple accounts.
First, I highly recommend reading AI Superpower by Lee Kaifu. Look past the conspiratorial-esque title and focus on the main points that Lee makes:
The article touched on the fact that India's vast population skews younger and are also more likely to make the technological leap onto mobile-first. With China being the leader in IoT (internet of things), opening a way for Indian users to provide Chinese tech giants with more data will only further cement China's position as a leader in the coming AI economy.
On the insight of China's rise? I don't know any particular source for this. Briefly, China, when ruled by the Hans, was largely isolationist. Even when they explored the known world with Zheng He's fleets, they were diplomatic and merely traded. No colonies. Today, you see the same diplomacy at work - with only limited military engagement when absolutely necessary. Their peaceful relations in the African and Latin regions support this -- regardless of what the US statement department claims. This is the nature of China. It is a trading nation. Relative to other great powers, it has been only infrequently expansionist. During its most expansive times, it was ruled by non-Hans. The idea that today's China wants to "take over the world" is the Western mindset/experience projecting itself onto China. They reason, "We colonized the entire planet when we were strong. So, of course China will do the same to us.". That fear is only part of the problem. The second problem is that America and some Western allies have never given up global conquest. From that perspective, China is a "threat" -- not to world peace, but to their ambitions.
Read this https://www.amazon.com/Tragedy-Hope-History-World-Time/dp/094500110X/
There was also a free book that summarized the main points under a similar title] Tragedy and Hope 101 I think?
Iran was the first to mobilise its military and financial resources when the Islamic State took over Mosul - months before the first American airstrike in Iraq.
Iran has sent military advisers, drones, intelligence units, and even tanks into Iraq, with little resistance or protest by the West.
Qassem Suleimani, commander of Iran's Qods Force and a designated "terrorist", even led Iraqi and Kurdish troops while under the cover of US airstrikes to break the siege of Amerli in September.
So the addition of Iranian airstrikes to the equation makes little difference: whether covert, overt, official, unofficial, by desire or by necessity, the US and Iran are already cooperating in Iraq.
For the both of them, the fall of Iraq to the Islamic State is a more fundamental threat to their interests than Syria is. Syria is currently on the back burner: the US continues to weigh up its options, while Iranian allies continue to grind out small military victories and consolidate whatever influence they can for Iran.
So there is no change in the geopolitical situation at this point: US and Iranian interests in Iraq continue to be aligned, while clashing in Syria.
But the increase in cooperation between the two in Iraq and throughout the nuclear negotiations may pave the way to future shifts in the geopolitical situation, as more and more communication channels between the two are opened and asymmetric information is reduced. It would not be unexpected to see a negotiated settlement in Syria if and when the Iraq and nuclear files are settled.
If you are trying to understand China better, reading Xi might be a good idea
There are two other volumes if you get done the first.
Yes, Hindu genocide has been ignored by media and history books since Nehru-Gandhi family came into power after independence in the belief that it would be bad for the unity of the country.
Famous American historian and philosopher Will Durant also wrote about it.
Exclusionist religions that say they alone are right have been very dangerous.
The World Bank has a lot of projects in Africa. At the state level, I am unaware of programs other than those carried out by sub-state organizations (NGOs, charity work, etc).
Many African governments are more receptive to Chinese money over World Bank money because China places fewer strings on its lending. The World Bank especially has instituted rules intended to prevent World Bank funds from going to fund despots, dictators, and warlords. The West also has quite a few rules against companies using bribes to secure business deals, with varying degrees of effectiveness (Israel is particularly bad). The US, for example, has the FCPA which unscrupulous companies find ways around, but has certainly reduced the number of bribes paid for mineral rights in the African continent. Chinese investment typically has no such compunction against those types of deals, so they are willing to invest in places that others are not.
If you're interested in the problem of corruption in sub-Saharan Africa and the role that foreign countries, especially Chinese, US, and UK multinationals play in enabling it, I recommend The Looting Machine. It's a very good book for laymen and is a fast read. It's very eye-opening, especially when it discusses the massive investment network of Sam Pa and his 88 queensway group, which remains linked to multiple bribery investigations, especially around Mugabe and the diamonds trade.
The World Turned Upside Down: America, China, and the Struggle for Global Leadership
I'd take the widely parroted numbers with a grain of salt. See pages 27-29 in this study by a pro-Uighur rights academic. https://www.academia.edu/37353916/NEW_Sept_2018_Thoroughly_Reforming_Them_Towards_a_Healthy_Heart_Attitude_-_Chinas_Political_Re-Education_Campaign_in_Xinjiang
According to the article, the numbers we get so far seems to be extrapolations of the percentages detained in certain areas to other areas, and sourced from an Istanbul based Uighur media organization and Radio Free Asia.
I liked this book. I’m sure there are newer/better sources, and this book predates 2001 I think, but gives the reader a fairly good insight into oil politics and foreign policy.
More to your question - Afghanistan has no oil fields of consequence and the elected Iraqi government sold oil leases to Total (French) and Shell (Dutch) after the war. They’ve since developed some fields on their own. No American oil company had extracted oil from Iraq.
But America has hundreds of energy companies and I wouldn’t doubt some of them worked contracts though companies that are lease holders or the Iraqi government.
The 1842 retreat from Kabul, as previously said was one - 18,500 men, women and children killed in 6 days with one lone survivor. If you want to read a wonderful, fascinating book about it check out the award winning ‘The Great Game’ by Peter Hopkirk, which details the British-Russia fight for India, which mostly took place in Afghanistan. https://www.amazon.com/Great-Game-Struggle-Central-Kodansha/dp/1568360223
Older but very relevant book: https://www.amazon.com/Corporate-Warriors-Privatized-Military-Industry/dp/0801474361
Singer is a great author on topics like this. I remember reading this in 2008 and thinking "Yea, thats not good.."
I couldn't read this article as I am not a subscriber. But here is a free CNN intro to the current state of the country. It's not much but it presents the very basics. He seems to have just now dismissed the army chief of staff and the Intelligence Director according to this article. This could lead to some protests I assume:
If you are lookin for an in-depth read on the topic I'd suggest the book How Asia works
This book is more pro China:
Has China Won?
Problem is the US Coast Guard has like 1 nuclear powered ice breaker to the Russians twelve. This is going to be the “Carrier Gap” of the 21st century.
Here’s a pretty good book on the subject and what’s being called “The New North”
She is neither a populist nor a demagogue.
If you want to smear her use the right words, please.
As far as I know, only Buzzfeed has published the document. CNN reported on it.
Edit: Here is the NY Times coverage
The satellite images published by Politico show a buildup in Yelnya
Yelnya is nowhere near the border with Ukraine (about 250km away), it's near Smolensk, closer to the Belarusian border than anything.
We're being misled, and it's painfully obvious.
I'm not going to be able to do justice to this topic, but Richard McGregor's Asia's Reckoning does. Probably the best book detailing the both sides of the relationship. As a bonus, you get the history of the post-WW2 Sino-Japanese relationship as well!
Why change subjects? Can you point to concrete examples of so called Chinese "debt traps"? I can point to an entire book full of real examples of Western economic imperialism http://www.amazon.com/Confessions-Economic-Hit-John-Perkins/dp/0452287081/
China's so-called Chinese human rights abuses are orders of magnitude less than America, but I don't hear you crying about America's human rights abuses that include an invasion of Iraq that killed about a million people, destroyed Libya, destroyed Syria, extreme police brutality/police state, global drone assassination programs, etc. Go ahead, prove me wrong.
Sorry, correction: most South American countries are actually more developed than China. Anyone interested in this should consider reading Ho's book https://www.amazon.com/China-Boom-Will-World-Contemporary/dp/023116419X
He discusses in detail a lot of these issues and challenges facing China.
I should have clarified. This is literally straight out of the personal e-mail of CIA director John Brennan in a leak/hacking that occurred recently.
I posted it because these remarks on Iran come straight from the horses mouth rather than the usual speculation of private analysts.
Here's a journal article on the subject, it is still under peer review. The PRC is not known for free press, or for that matter, FOI, so as a result most of the information on re-education camps is limited.
>"they are used to assimilate Uyghurs"
Most of the information available (and to reiterate - it is limited) suggests that the focus of the re-education is to suppress Islamic and Uighur culture. Hence the typical description of forced assimilation.
>"they are most definitely inhumane and human rights violations"
The inhumane is primarily on the basis of overcrowding, while the human right violations relates to it being extrajudicial and applied arbitrary on the basis of perceived seperatism. Most reports by those who claim to have been in the camps describe it as a prison. As far as I know, no media outlet has suggested that torture occurs, and the word torture only appears once in the above article, in relation to Sayragul Sauytbay facing torture for discussing the camps with Kazakh officials if she returns to China.
The conflict in Xinjiang largely relates to Uighur nationalism, which has been around since the early 20th century. It's similar in some sense to other secessionist movements, West Papuan for instance, in that there has been riots, uprisings etc. In the case of diplomatic support for West Papuan independence most comes from other Melanesian countries, and analogously, in the case of Xinjiang, most diplomatic pressure and support comes from other Turkic countries.
> give Venezuela billions of dollars in loans,
Russia invested $17 billion in 2016-2017. Last December Maduro announced that Russia is going to invest another $6 billion in industries.
A lot of information is still unclear but it looks like Trump had some big influence in this(If NK actually does this)
Source - https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/26/world/korea-summit-kang-kyung-wha-amanpour-intl/index.html
Update!!- South Korea’s Foreign Minister telling CNN That “Clearly Credit Goes To President Trump”
End-to-end encryption is a marketing buzzword these days. Since services like WhatsApp (owned by Facebook, a company known for being the most hostile to user privacy) hold access to both the public and private keys of their users, they are vulnerable to the problems that E2EE is supposed to fix.
I'd imagine same applies to China with WeChat, I find it difficult to fathom that the most advanced surveillance state's largest communication platform wouldn't have some method of handing over data to the Chinese authorities. The difference between the two is that one app is obedient to western law and the other is obedient to Chinese law, hence why it is being targeted (the same way Huawei has been targeted despite many other technology companies engaging in similar practices they are alleged to be doing).
It's not a just meme on reddit anymore.
Even people like Glenn Beck and David Brooks of the New York Times are beginning to talk about Dugin.
It was leaked by insiders and the Kremlin is trying to fund those responsible:
Russian federal agents are reportedly on a man hunt for the officials who leaked the Salisbury suspects' passport docs
That Vodafone story is extremely misleading.
It's about a decade old incident where a piece of networking hardware still had its telnet interface open. Vodafone pointed it out, and Huawei fixed it.
Nothing was reported back then because it's a complete non-story as open telnet ports are an extremely common network admin issue, particularly since the IoT craze started.
The German counterpart to the American “Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens” study showed that we have the same problem.
>This threatens an increasing vicious circle of unequal participation and unequal responsiveness, in which socially disadvantaged groups notice that their concerns are not being heard and therefore turn away from politics - which is subsequently even more strongly oriented towards the interests of the better-off. The pattern of systematically distorted decisions proven for the USA also applies to Germany.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator
Having more than two parties does not mean much if the two biggest parties are dominant and close to each other.
SS: Please note that this video is sponsored. While I doubt NordVPN had any influence on the subject matter, I think it's still worth highlighting in the interest of transparency.
In the first of a two-part series, Binkov explores what a new Cold War between the US and People's Republic of China might look like. In particular, he explores what roles Europe and Russia will play in addition what "side" they may take if forced to pick one or the other.
Finally, Binkov quickly examines the economic and military capabilities of the belligerents, noting that China has advanced its economy by leaps and bounds, and is not so far behind the US in terms of its military either. Nevertheless, if relations were to break down today and an arms race were to ensue, the US would still hold a significant advantage over China.
The Wikileaks cables cover what the State Department knew and proposed to do about it diplomatically in 2009 under Hilary Clinton.
Below are snippets of the document title and then section7, which discusses Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Pakistan funding of terrorism.
TERRORIST FINANCE: ACTION REQUEST FOR SENIOR LEVEL ENGAGEMENT ON TERRORISM FINANCE
Date: 2009 December 30, 13:28
From: Secretary of State
To: Department of the Treasury | Kuwait Kuwait City | Pakistan Islamabad | Qatar Doha | Saudi Arabia Riyadh | United Arab Emirates Abu Dhabi
7. (U) Saudi Arabia background (S/NF)
While the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) takes seriously the threat of terrorism within Saudi Arabia, it has been an ongoing challenge to
persuade Saudi officials to treat terrorist financing emanating from
Saudi Arabia as a strategic priority.
... more needs to be done since Saudi Arabia
remains a critical financial support base for al-Qaida, the Taliban,
LeT, and other terrorist groups, including Hamas, which probably raise
millions of dollars annually from Saudi sources, often during Hajj and
To add to what you're saying...the one study they're citing is 5 years old, and its based off a scenario in which the American side is outnumbered 3:1...of course the results aren't going to be optimal. Furthermore, as with any simulation, it's going to be an imperfect mathematical modeling of the real world. It's also likely that the simulation was based in hypothetical projections of Chinese airpower capabilities that probably gave them an unrealistic ability to counter the f-35.
I think the war game can best be described as a "worst-case scenario" of a potential future air battle. It should be taken into consideration, but it should not cause undue panic. The main thing this study revealed is the huge advantage that's conveyed by an unanticipated first-strike. That's frightening in its own way. But I don't think it has such dire implications for the JSF's combat abilities. Assuming that its stealth can be countered, the f-35 is basically a 4.5th gen air superiority fighter with fifth gen avionics and armament.
I like War is Boring, and I think a lot of their criticisms of the JSF program are valid, especially one's related to its stubbornly exorbitant price...but they tend to exaggerate a lot when it comes to how bad it's going to be as a combat performer. This article of theirs provides a much more balanced and level-headed perspective.
> 2. (S) In August of 2004, [US] Ambassador outlined the country team's 5 point strategy to guide embassy activities in Venezuela for the period 2004 - 2006 […] The
strategy's focus is: 1) Strengthening Democratic Institutions, 2) Penetrating Chavez' Political Base, 3) Dividing Chavismo, 4) Protecting Vital US business, and 5) Isolating Chavez internationally.
> 17. (S) Through carrying out positive activities, working in a non-partisan way across the ideological landscape, OTI has been able to achieve levels of success in carrying out the country team strategy in Venezuela. These successes have come with increasing opposition by different sectors of Venezuelan society and the Venezuelan government. Should Chavez win the December 3rd presidential elections, OTI expects the atmosphere for our work in Venezuela to become more complicated.
Here is the thing. A few people here have already contested the existence of such bases and the capabilities of them. Your analogy does not match reality as we are talking about a vast distance and military hardwares of various level of capacities. You also discounted the fact that India has ballistic missiles.
My contention is not whether India and China are competiting over geopolitical influence; rather, it is about whether "encirclement" deserves to be the focus. And it is not, because the bases are either nonexistent or will be subjected to missile retaliations should they function as launch points of any operations in the event of war. That's means their strategic importance are overstated as they have very limited factual or conceptual tactical capacities.
Sure, India is worried about China's presence, but it is a grand strategic problem, a problem that naval patrol bases play a very very limited role in. Unless we are talking about China installing ballistics missiles sites in and around Indian Ocean, then that would be a credible "encirclement".
India has just tested a new ballistic missile not a few moons ago, and caused concerns for China. The idea of "encirclement" seems to be just looking at a map, draw a line and say that it must be "encirclement", discounting how these assets would function tactically in realistic sense. The point being, the grand strategic contest between Indian and China is more than enough to make predictions on their behaviours. Those naval bases are many decimal points behind the much bigger number.
This paper also comments on how India holds greater strategic advantages over China over Indian Ocean: https://www.academia.edu/7698002/Beyond_the_String_of_Pearls_Is_there_really_a_Security_Dilemma_in_the_Indian_Ocean
>I guess general Liang is a believer in the petrodollar conspiracy
What, that the petrodollar exists or that the US wages war upon countries that wishes to challenge the petrodollar?
I think neither warrants the negative connotations of "conspiracy", since there is plenty of open debate discussing both. I'll use the word "hypothesis" instead.
It seems like many of the media organisations reporting on the story have been able to confirm that much. For example, The Atlantic
> [the memos were] prepared by a former British intelligence operative, who gathered the information while working as an opposition researcher for both anti-Trump Republicans and later for Democrats... while the information was circulating for months, the intelligence community has now “checked out the former British intelligence operative and his vast network throughout Europe and find him and his sources to be credible enough” to use the information in briefings.
> The former British intelligence officer who gathered the material about Mr. Trump is considered a competent and reliable operative with extensive experience in Russia, American officials said.
Yes, the evidence the US fabricated for the Iraq case turned out to be wrong - Who could have guessed:D Sanctioned by the UN? Nope.
TBH, not many resources have been dedicated to Afghan-Pakistan relations but you will find tons of books on Pakistan-US relations. This book is relatively good:
I would suggest reading articles online on this topic, you will find a lot more information online rather then finding a condensed book.
"American Foreign Policy Since WWII" - Steven W. Hook
"Diplomacy" - H. Kissinger
"The Utility of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World" - Rupert Smith
"The Grand Chessboard" - Zbigniew Brzezinski
Although I have only briefly flicked through this study it seems like it provides good background on current tensions between the arab states.
I don't see how anyone can really say it does. Like the author said, we've seen "liberal democracy" start to degrade here in the West since the end of the Cold War, accelerated by shocks like 9/11 and the Great Recession. I think those two shocks and the disaster that was Iraq have done a lot of damage to the image of "liberal democracy" in the eyes of the developing world. China and now Russia are starting to provide alternative options that some have described as "illiberal democracy" as the author mentions. Some nations are turning away completely (Bolivia) and we may see more of that in the future.
Two books I'd recommend reading on this topic in addition to Piketty's:
The Beijing Consensus
The End of the Free Market
> contrary to shitily done reports
Did you read the report in the intercept
Extremely in depth. It is based on a leak, so the "study" is practically straight from the (formerly secret) government figures.
> Drone strikes are no more "extra-judicial murders"
What about that US citizen that was killed. Does that not set a worrisome precedent?
During one five-month period of the operation, nearly 90% of the people killed in airstrikes were not the intended targets.
Basically, everyone killed is called a viable target/terrorist, unless they prove a person wasn't a viable target after they are already dead. It's basically the same thinking as Asset Forfeiture in the states. You're guilty first. Then, after you are punished, you have a chance to prove you were innocent all along. Except with drone strikes, you are dead.
It really depends what you want to do. That being said, as a foundation I think having a solid grasp of world history is critical, followed by a basic working knowledge of economics. From there, work yourself up to more advanced topics like game theory.
For a specific recommendation, I just recently finished John R Hale's brilliant 12 hour lecture series on the Greek and Persian wars. Absolutely amazing stuff.
while not exactly on this topic, an article by Lee Jones titled "Explaining the Failure of the ASEAN Economic Community: The Primacy of Domestic Political Economy" might interest you. it is available here for free, if you have an academia.edu account: https://www.academia.edu/13451027/Explaining_the_Failure_of_the_ASEAN_Economic_Community_The_Primacy_of_Domestic_Political_Economy
Education in the United States is terrible by first-world standards, which helps to account for why Fox is actually the most popular news network here. There's been significant speculation (from figures like Chomsky) that this was an intentional reaction to the dissent surrounding the Vietnam War. It was seen in some circles as a failure of the education system to create obedient citizens, and the issue was addressed by modifying the education system to emphasize compliance over critical thought or knowledge.
Ah, I see the problem.
You see, RT and Россия Сегодня (literally "Russia Today" in Russian) are separate organizations with different people. RT is much older, РС is reformed RIA Novosti. Russian government also invests in other news agencies or state TV channels. And this agency is aimed both outside and inside Russia, so it's supposed to mirror consistent "official" governmental point of view.
every now and then they release some for free - think they did one recently, lemme check
edit: not exactly free, but here's a preview of one - William Hogeland on recovered history
This one is old (October 2016), but it's a GREAT fucking interview - -Max Blumenthal on Gaza, Syria and the White Helmets
I don't think the PLAN will develop quickly enough to dominate the Indian Ocean within the next decade especially considering India's recent defense expenditures. China does not control a port in the Indian Ocean yet, which will take lots of diplomatic and financial effort to acquire. While the current "String of Pearls" allows the PLAN some degree of influence in the Indian Ocean, it's insufficient for the kind of military operations currently carried out by the US Fifth Fleet.
Edit: One could also question whether China is seeking the same kind of hegemonic control over the Indian Ocean that the US currently possesses over the Atlantic and Pacific.
Decided to reply again.
Source for most of this. The author is painstaking about detailing his sources and frequently pulls from dod. https://www.amazon.com/Unrivaled-America-Superpower-Cornell-Security/dp/1501724789
1) China is rapidly aging. Pension costs are skyrocketing and the working force productivity is not close to keeping up
2) Also applies to the military. Most of china's increased military spending since 1990 has been directly to pension payouts. Not new weapons or training
3) Brain drain. China loses many of its best and brightest to Western nations. Emigration has gutted their academic class. Example: nearly 1/3 of Chinese peer reviewed scientific articles are retracted for academic dishonesty or flat out lies.
4) Wasted effort and poor training. China's military spends nearly 30% of its training time in pro communist lectures and trains its soldiers only on flat clear bases. Very little field training or active military simulation
5) Hostile borders. India, Russia, NK, Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan all demand military focus. India for example is a very strong deterent to any Chinese adventuring. They have the means and motive to retake parts of India occupied by China should China try to project power abroad. Most of the chineese military is engaged in border defense and repression
6) Police state, China spends significant amounts of wealth and man hours controlling a very fractious people. Top 30 in riots worldwide for example
In short? China is growing old before growing wealthy. It can't afford its current population and won't be able to afford the population needed to maintain its retired population. It's military is very very poorly trained and led. And China is surrounded by powerful enemies
This is supposedly how it is going mainstream in Salvadorian society. I haven't been able to get install numbers on a per country basis, just anecdotes that it is "taking off".
I was trying to differentiate between crime/espionage and acts of war (cyberwar). I guess we could refer to everything under the umbrella term of 'Cyberwar' as long as we understand its a metaphorical term like the 'war on drugs' or the 'war on crime'.
Things like Stuxnet, the mysterious '08 Turkey Pipeline Blast and a 2007 Israel airstrike on Syria in which their Air defence system was disabled all required zero-day exploits. True acts of cyberwar (which cause or assist in 'real-world' destruction) have been extremely rare.
The main fear of some US officials (in my opinion this is just scare mongering) is that none-state actors will get hold of some and launch a 'cyber 9/11'. The hypothetical danger is a simultaneous attack on all things which make use of 'industrial controllers' (this is what Stuxnet targeted in the Iranian plant- and these things are general purpose) which could render powerplants, construction and factory automation, and elevators all temporarily inoperable until whatever damage was caused got fixed. Some good facts about the potential danger are here: http://www.cnet.com/uk/news/ralph-langner-on-stuxnet-copycat-threats-q-a/.
In such an attack the current US policy would be to launch a kinetic 'real world' response so attribution is key for deterrence to be possible.
It will only be a matter of time before China surpasses US and Europe.
China has already eclipse US in terms of economy according to the IMF:
Its fascinating that this guy has been considering a run for so long. Additionally, it seems that, for the same historical reasons https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/28/us/politics/donald-trump-housing-race.html, whether DJT is racially prejudiced is a fair question (trying hard to not indicate that I think I know the answer ;) ). Hence, my conjecture that protectionism might be inconsistently applied -- which might still happen depending on how the policies are actually enacted.
This was a required reading for my master's course in global governance that summarizes the more recent development of constructivist theory. I hope you find it useful!
Fierke, K. M. (2013) ‘Constructivism’, in T. Dunne, M. Kurki, and S. Smith (eds). International relations theories: discipline and diversity. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 187–204.
This article summarizes in English a report released today by Meduza, one of the top independent media outlets in the Russian-speaking world, and written by Daniil Turovsky, one of the Russian world's best investigative journalists. The original article, in Russian, is here.
I expect that Meduza will be releasing a full English version of the report soon.
You might try the Supreme Ruler series. You can choose between the interwar periods through WW2, The Cold War, and then also a scenario for 2020. It is based on the Europa Universalis IV engine and plays similar to other Paradox games. I haven't played it much, but I have only owned it for a few weeks. I am still learning the game, but it is really in depth.
Maybe, it's correct to say that divide in America is not between right and left. I personally don't believe that in post-modern world ideology really matters, e.g. China
But, the divide is between globalism and nationalism
We must realize that Cold War is Over, and therefore America or World couldn't be run by post-WW2 order.
We can see that after the end of threat from Soviet Union, American foreign policy doesn't serve interest of American people. Also, Europe and America are no longer in capacity to maintain stability in poorer countries of Africa and Asia. Therefore, room needs to made for regional powers as well.
But, Mega Corporations of the West don't want it happen. As they've vested interest for security of their asset across globe. So, the West needs to maintain military presence around the world.
Also, aging population, which will likely require huge trade deficits is big concern for Developed Nations, including China as well. Therefore, they require their currencies to be global reserves. So, military presence is necessary, in order to implement it's will on weaker countries, as seen in Iraq and Libya.
- Accidental Superpower - Peter Zeihan
- Asia's Cauldron - Robert D. Kaplan
Not a problem- I really like the very professional level of discussion that this sub generates, so I'm always thrilled to get solid questions on my writing!
We've actually recently started including a reading list at the end of each article with books we like on the topic in question. They are Amazon affiliate links so they actually generate earnings to support the site, so if you are looking for more reading then please consider buying them using our links! In particular, for this article I recommended "Saudi Arabia & Iran: Power and Rivalry in the Middle East" by Simon Mabon. This book goes into depth about why the rivalry exists, and how it is likely to play out. Another interesting read on the topic is "The Sunni Vanguard", which is a little bit too pro-KSA, Turkey and Egypt to be called truly academic, but gives you an excellent assessment of the situation from those states' point of view.
This take is also a tad myopic. There was no "foot-setting", all these lands are historically Russian, as in, populated by Eastern Orthodox Slavs descending from the population of the so-called Kievan Rus. For example, Crimea is where Vladimir the Great is thought to have been baptized, leading to the Christianization of Kievan Rus.
Keep in mind that nationalism is a fairly recent phenomenon.
If you want to unscramble all this, you can try reading "The Origins of the Slavic Nations" by Serhii Plokhy. https://www.amazon.com/Origins-Slavic-Nations-Premodern-Identities/dp/0521155118
The trouble with bringing African nations to nurturing economic development as primary policy objectives, you must contend with the fact that the continent was historically the front, right & centre of European scramble for Africa.
Many of the continent’s modern territories were resultant of the carve-up the Europeans did, disrespecting the existing tribal and cultural differences in the territories. As a result, many of the African nations, upon independence, were left with little infrastructure for governance and a solid institution to rule themselves without falling into “strongman” politics.
If I look at the Sri Lankan Tamil crisis as an example of how two distinct cultural groups cannot coexist without going through some form of strife in order to facilitate in conflict resolution (basically, might is right) in the context of trying to figure out what a national narrative is supposed to be like after independence, the problem is maginified in Africa, where nations like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria and Mali had to fight against armed minorities whose backers are from other countries or supra-national entities that are looking to find opportunities & extract concessions, often to benefit the “strongman” leaders there.
Also, this book.
You're saying the article is isolationist? Eliot Cohen is many things, but an isolationist is most definitely not one of them.
> Hungary is getting exactly what it wants it has a very deep seated racism and xenophobia problem that has been recognized by EU multiple times in their reports but just like a bad parent they would rather throw gifts and money at Budapest then actually try to work on its problems.
Guess what? Many other countries being courted by West--more so after the Russia onslaught--ranging from the Central Asian Stalinist states to Mr. Bone Saw's regime to the biggest "democracy" of them all by now, India are so messed up that Hungary comes across as a liberal paradise next to them.
"Confessions Of An Economic Hitman"
For anyone interested in reading more about this idea, I highly recommend this book (which you might have to find at a different link – it is selling out right now due to its sudden relevance). It’s written by a man who was hired to be Putin’s advisor on the topic of western publicity. In other words, he was a top resource for Putin to understand how the west would see his actions, and was one of the only westerners to be that close to the man.
One could even argue that it was Russian eyes on Constantinople that began the chain of mobilizations in the last week of July, 1914 which resulted in "The Great War".
Sure, more dangerous than "global thermonuclear war". Turks will need to acquire a serious case of collective amnesia and forget things like the Crimean War, World War I, and the "Turkish Crisis" after end of WWII that, among other things, led to founding of NATO before they start cozying up to Putin.
This book might be worth a look. The author seems opinionated, and no doubt has his flaws, but harsh dismissal of his points seems to me to point to the very problem he's talking about: how hidebound "conventional wisdom" bearing pundits of status quo have become:
most of my info comes from this book ( original in dutch ) https://www.amazon.nl/Hello-Everybody-Journalists-Search-Middle/dp/184668384X from a journalist about the middle east.
basically, when a tragedy happens, lets say a rocket hits a house, or someone got killed by an israeli soldier, there's a whole network of 'guides' who can help international journalist meet the close family of that person, who'll be crying expressively about how terrible it was, how innocent the victim was, etc. However, these 'middle east correspondents' will often be responsible for the entire middle east, will be flown in to report on the new incident in this part of the middle east, and will thus have to rely on their 'guides' to find the story behind the story.
And while it's easy enough to get genuine reactions(something terrible did indeed happen), but you can be sure that even if there are no genuine reactions to be found, they'll easily be 'found' by the guides anyway.
and just like much western media will pick up the Israeli version of the story which will focus on how violent the victims were, or how many israeli got hurt, or how scared the israeli are to live in this violent situation, other western media will pick up the palestina story about how unprovoked this attack was, how terrible the harm, or how innocent the victims.
Even so, this kind of 'propaganda' isn't limited to Israel and Palastina either, how many times have you seen protests on tv where if the camera would've zoomed out, you'd see 20 people protesting with 50 camera's around it, only long enough to get a few good shots?
Actually, what HW is expecting is that instead of growing revenue from $100 billion to $130 billion next year, revenue will be flat instead with all of the "loss" basically in international smartphone sales. I don't see how anybody expects HW to go bankrupt or something. HW has the Chinese market as guaranteed and its non-smartphone business is far less impacted.
>Huawei, which turned in a revenue of 721.2 billion yuan ($104 billion) last year, expects revenue of around $100 billion this year and the next, Ren said. This compares to an initial target for a growth in 2019 to between $125 billion and $130 billion depending on foreign exchange fluctuations.
HW despite being completely banned by the US is still a $100 billion USD/year revenue company.
The CEO is actually pretty frank:
>“We did not expect they would attack us on so many aspects,” Ren said, adding he expects a revival in business in 2021.
2021 is just 2 years from now.
In other news, HW's new OS is launching this year and 1 million phones have shipped to be tested already:
Here is academic and political scientist Umberto Eco (He’s been dead for a while and the source is non-partisan so I hope it’ll pass what I’m guessing it’ll pass the “well he j hates trump” test) but this man - who grew up in racist Italy - spent his whole academic career trying to define fascism. I’m his works, he gives 14 common features of fascism. As you can see from his work - which is among the most important when defining fascism in political science - it is not the free university that defines fascism but instead the way in defines an in group and an out group. This does not mean trying to tackle real injustice, instead, it means making others, especially immigrants and minorities, seem subhuman, unequal, or not deserving of human rights.
SS: The Iranian government has decided to proceed with the construction of a rail line from Chabahar port to Zahedan, on its own, citing delays from the Indian side in funding and starting the project. The entire project is expected to be completed by 2022, without any Indian assistance and by using approximately $400 million from the Iranian National Development Fund.
The railway project was meant to be part of India’s commitment to the trilateral agreement between India, Iran and Afghanistan to build an alternate trade route to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Indian Railways Construction Ltd (IRCON) had signed an MoU to construct the Chabahar-Zahedan railway. But India never started the work due to the fear of sanctions from the US. Meanwhile, Iran and China are about to finalise a 25-year Strategic Partnership which will include Chinese involvement in Chabahar’s duty-free zone, an oil refinery nearby, and possibly a larger role in Chabahar port as well.
A tie-up between the Chinese-run Pakistani port at Gwadar and Chabahar is expected.
Bandar-e-Jask port 350km away from Chabahar involving Chinese investment is expected
This is a good podcast that helps you understand the current situation in Libya.
This is aired in Feb 2020 so its latest to that date.
I suggest you read the date on those documents.
They are about the GDR and the unification of Germany, in January and February 1990.
Of course there was promises while the fall of the USSR hadn’t even happened yet. Anything else would be ridiculous.
It was a condition for Germany’s unification, and for a very long time afterwards there were no nato troops in former East German territory. Even today there are no nato bases there.
(Previous comment was automoderated because of a certain online encyclopedia)
“ I frequently heard from Russian ofacials and from some Western observers that NATO leaders in 1990 had secretly offered “categorical assurances,” “solemn pledges,” and “binding commitments” that no former Warsaw Pact countries (aside from the former GDR) would be brought into NATO. Those allegations continue to be voiced in Russia to this day. Archival documents bearing on those claims were declassiaed in Germany in the 1990s, but it took much longer for relevant Soviet documents to be released. However, after crucial Soviet materials anally became available in the late 2000s, including detailed notes from the negotiations, I sought to determine whether the Russian allegations are well founded. I concluded that they are not.”
Nearly all of those look like this. Someone just posted an article about China's reckless fishing practices, so they need them to actually fish.
The number that could be fast enough and/or persist long enough with the appropriate power and crew requirements for what you're talking about is actually pretty small.
Think about the numbers of the American or Soviet/Russian fishing fleets. This appeal to simple numbers argument goes nowhere. You hear the same thing about drone swarms, in reality, the cost and vulnerability of super cheap or modified weapons are substantially higher than anyone else would guess.
Once you live in a state controlled media. Everything, and I mean everything, becomes a propaganda machine that crunches whatever the politicians wants you to believe.
You might question the news but the majority will just accept it for what it is: reality.
There's more evidence, but the informational waters around the guy are very muddy.
Here is the best source I know, you can run it through Google translate.
Lukashenko's narrative changes every election, in 2010 it was brute repression which resulted in international condemnation but he got away as protests were much smaller and international support for them much weaker. In 2015 it was that he was the only one saving Belarus's sovereignty and preventing a Russian invasion i.e a Ukraine scenario. This worked well for him as he was elected with no trouble at all. This time it was 2015 lite, basically Russia is undermining Belarus's sovereignty and that Russia is using Wagner companies to physically interfere in election. This didn't work as intended as lukashenko greatly overestimated the popularly of his dictatorship and his brute repression of opposition and high rigging (80% vote) has angered majority of people and they are out on the streets. One reason for this may be that lukashenko may have believed his state propaganda too much himself and become delusional.
(How he apparently lost touch with reality).
Putin currently is not on great terms with lukashenko but in his latest speeches has called for the mobilization of Russian police battalions to ensure order in Belarus if riots and anarchy break out maidan style I feel west outright interfering in the belarusian protests would only push Putin to intervene directly while he currently may not be doing.
Putin and lukashenko agree to use joint forces if west uses a military intervention in Belarus :-
> The transition plan quoted by the "coordinating council" of the opposition initially contained manifesto points which included withdrawing from the customs union with Russia. But since then those points have been removed as most protestors today are not pro-opposition per se but mainly pro democracy and anti lukashenko.
Supposed "removal" of those points doesn't really change anything, as the very same people will end up in charge should the protests succeed. Note that rank-and-file protesters have no means of preventing new government from enacting the "removed" reforms.
> Explains the opposition program and it's latest changes, read the update part. (Use google translate).
The article is wrong (and the update admits that it is not wholly correct).
The "national security" points Lukashenko was talking about did appear in the early version of opposition program and were hidden later (made inaccessible, unless the direct address is known beforehand; thus reassuring militant Right-wing groups without alerting general public).
The transition plan quoted by the "coordinating council" of the opposition initially contained manifesto points which included withdrawing from the customs union with Russia. But since then those points have been removed as most protestors today are not pro-opposition per se but mainly pro democracy and anti lukashenko. So highly unlikely Putin fermented these protests but for the amount of contempt lukashenko showed to Putin in the run up to this election it is highly unlikely Putin will lift a finger to save him though.
Explains the opposition program and it's latest changes, read the update part. (Use google translate).
The vehicles recorded likely to belong to Rosgvardiya (The National Guard of the Russian Federation), which is while militarised, does not belong to the military. The Western Military District confirmed those are not their vehicles.
Great post but I'd just like to correct that oil being settling in USD doesn't mean anything in practical terms. Countries sell oil in whatever currency they choose, and settling in dollars is mostly a formality. Ergo, an increase/decrease in value of dollar has no bearing on the price of oil and vice-versa. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-and-oil-have-a-complicated-relationship-with-the-dollar-2015-03-23
> and yet they are cooperating more as the threat rises. You admitted that yourself.
Japan recalls Ambassador from South Korea over 'comfort women' issue
Japanese withdrew it's Top Diplomat from South Korea. China can easily easily easily exploit the 'comfort women' issue to split Japan and South Korea. There is no cooperation between Japan and South Korea, they can't even agree on historical colonization issue, which China can easily easily exploit.
>Thanks for making it easy for us. Really. We can even justify putting advanced radars close to China's borders using North Korea, and justify our ABM defences in the region without mentioning China. Its the gift that keeps on giving.
THAAD gives China an excuse to exponentially increase it's ICBM nuclear arsenal. THAAD can never neutralize a large arsenal because it's only 1 battery in SK, which can easily be overwhelmed. It's far cheaper to build ICBMs than build THAAD batteries.
Thank you for giving China an excuse to increase it's arsenal to 5,000 warheads :)
> What's the point of that? It would not even work.
Isn't it already working?
> “They’re scared to death of Russia,” Gen. Raymond T. Thomas, the head of the Pentagon’s Special Operations Command, who visited here recently, said of the tiny militaries of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. “They are very open about that. They’re desperate for our leadership.”