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Well SCW, been a wild ride. Had a lot of good fun on this subreddit, truly expanded my knowledge of Middle Eastern history, culture, language, and ideologies. Learned a ton about Islamism and Islam in general, and found some not-so-pleasant truths about myself and my countrymen. Enjoyed learning, sharing, discussing, arguing, and moderating with the rest of you. As of now, I have wiped clean the entirety my reddit history and after this post, I am deleting my account. I have a future to think of and not everything I posted here was things I necessarily feel like defending 20 years from now. A fair number of text writeups that weren't threads just got shredded, but for anyone interested in the self-posts, I've saved about 80% of them here: http://justpaste.it/oy1q . I'll try and pop into chat now and again, I can be found on twitter under MENA_Conflict or at my blog www.Type63.com . If you ever find yourself in DC or the DC area, please hit me up, I would love to grab a drink or something more halal with you and discuss the conflict, life, or whatever. Even if I hate you. Or you hate me. I have no intention of disappearing from the internet and I hope to continue writing on this conflict, so long as people are willing to pay me to do it.

And for one last time- I'm not a fucking spy.

Love,

LAKY/LiesAboutKnowingYou

Very bad. This just adds to the unhinged performance both Erdogan and Albayrak just gave.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=TRY&view=12h

Erdogan and Albayrak started speaking when the USD was worth 6 TL. Trump tweeted somewhere in the middle of it. Markets lost all confidence in the Turkish government's ability or willingness to get out of the crisis.

Read a good book a few years back.

The CIA in Hollywood: How the Agency Shapes Television and Film

Basically most TV or films the US produces involving the Middle East should be viewed with about as much credibility as a Nazi era film on the Soviets.

Few notable exceptions; Syrianna being one because it was based on former CIA man Robert Baer's book "See No Evil".

To avoid confusion.

The convoy was heading to/coming from KarAbila not KarBala.

Karabila is on the Syrian/Iraqi border and can be seen here.

Most edits are now making this distinction to clear up any of the obvious confusion!

Location:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.713730&lon=36.057773&z=15&m=b

This is pretty significant if it gets confirmed. Qassab mountain dominates the nearby area around along with Nuba that SAA captured few days ago. Suddenly they are in position to really threaten supply lines towards Salma and are close to Baradun Dam. Whole that area north-northeast of Qassab and around Baradun Dam is sort of crossroad. They are now in position to get down towards villages on the one of 2 supply routes to Salma and approch it from the west. There was some reports of some advances towards Salma on the east side too but that area will require a lot more time. Still, this is pretty significant position, if they can keep it.

They are with this also suddenly less than 5(?) miles from Rabia from the south too which is second most important rebel stronghold in Latakia after Salma. There was significant avance north/northwest of Rabia for a while now. Any further advance to the north of Qassab will create dangerous salient for the rebels east of Rabia, in Toros area. If rebels are forced to withdraw from there Rabia will become pretty exposed. Salma and Rabia are main goals in the long run. Capturing those would significantly reduce the size of the Latakia rebel pocket and allow SAA to plan further push along the Turkish border towards Jisr.

This might be one of the most important developments on Latakia front recently. Hopefully we'll get more confirmations.

Well, I think a major factor that people aren't seeing, is that the SAA is significantly shortening frontlines on some major fronts, and strengthening others by gaining the high ground and other defensive positions.

This push has already removed the Hadaddin salient in Southern Aleppo, and I am guessing they're aiming to remove the other one, while also capturing all major high-ground positions.

The Northern Hama offensives aims to remove the Rebel salient and positioning the SAA in several strong-points such as Khan Shikoun and the highground South of Tamanian.

The Northern Homs offensive aims to reduce the pocket, opne the road, possibly in order to lessen the amount of forces needed there, which relates to you point 1 and 2.

Latakia and the al Ghab offensive has as only goal to gain the highground, which will give them sigficant strategic leverage, with the theoratical capture of Salma and Sirminyah. This will help the SAA push to Jisr which will remove any danger to the coast, reduce/remove the pocket, and will give SAA the high ground that is the Latakia mountains.

This all relates to your points, which I all agree with.

My god! That's only 17km away! Kurdish forces are on a fucking roll.

Remeber that current YPG lines are racing towards Slouk, and between there and Abyad it's pretty much empty.

EDIT: It seems like Tall Abyad will be the reverse of the situation in Kobane. A surrounded city from all sides (since I think both sides will wait on the other), except on the Turkish border. This will be a field-day for the Americans.

Iran did house AQ families and senior members. It was mostly under house arrest. Here is a podcast about a book that interviews BinLaden children etc.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/03/book-talk-the-exile-the-stunning-inside-story-of-osama-bin-laden-and-al-qaeda-in-flight/

Here is the book

https://www.amazon.com/Exile-Stunning-Inside-Story-Flight/dp/1620409844

If Aleppo falls by the end of the year the government claimed it will then I can see a good majority of rebels laying down their arms and either going into exile, taking amnesty or even defecting back to the SAA in order to fight ISIS.

Also I was not aware the military academy is about to be/has been retaken, the SAA really is moving rapidly. Location here: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.324202&lon=37.248502&z=15&m=b

Great article again by Robert Fisk. I'd be fairly certain, there is no Western journalist who has spent more time of the frontlines of the Middle East than Fisk has.

His book "The Great war for Civilisation" is a fantastic 1,000+ page book of similar reporting over 30 years. Covering the frontlines of the Iran-Iraq war, the Lebanon Civil War (he lived in Beirut during the majority of the war and still lives there today), Palestine-Israel's various wars, First Gulf war, and the US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan.

It's a great introduction book for people who want to know more about the Middle East and how we got to the current situation.

SAA capture the Flin Jeans, Yeast factories + Brewery in Owaija district, Aleppo

Source: https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/783587001773600768

Location of the factories: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.261413&lon=37.181457&z=17&m=b

That is some pretty big ghanima, no organized retreat here. Almost unbelievable that these guys ran from 1 tank and 1 BMP with fighters when they have a defensive position with a lot more men and material. Then again we have seen them run like that many many times. Btw it's Ash Sha'ta village.

It seems as though the Mulleted Martyr is growing a beard as well.

It's hard to figure out exactly where they fired from, but here is Jub al-Ahmar. It lies approximately 16km SW of Jisr al-Shugur, 14km W of Qastun, and 8km SE of Salma. In relation to the rest of the theater, it is on the eastern edge of this map, on the opposition front lines just 8km W of al-Ziyarah.

Edit: Updated distances to better reflect firing location. Added a map of the Latakia theater.

>71/101 isn't really most.

Let's look at the definition of the word "most".

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/most

Obviously, 70% is the majority, so Syrian air-defenses intercepted most of the missiles in this attack.

Actually they were looking down on "Little Kufayr" from "Bigger Kufayr". Look at the retreating force from where they are retreating and the buildings and look at this here:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.776687&lon=36.320071&z=16&m=b

It actually more than confirms the rebels controlling Bigger Kufayr. Hell even look at the L road they are driving and retreating from. It is that very road. Also notice the batch of little trees, it is the same patch from right left of that little street town.

What are you, a cop?

Lions of Rojava is pretty open that most foreign nationals deploying to Rojava fly into Suleymaniyah and then head northwest to the border. Often times, its a boat crossing at night. So, you can also a assume light arms and RPGs make it that way.

I believe Jordan Matson said there were like 27 gun trucks intended for the YPG that the KRG was holding at the border indefinitely and not letting them cross. If KRG would let those across, maybe folks would be less skeptical of the "Rojava Peshmerga" (Or more accurately the Barzani/KDP Peshmerga made up of Syrian Kurds). But maintaining a boycott and wanting to send in its own militia is very sketchy.

Here is an interview with an Irish volunteer that spent some time in a PKK transit camp, he didn't manage to make it across

>14/1/2016 NSFW Daesh propaganda video depicting clashes around Deir ez-Zor

Video was actually released on January 13, but the fighting is from December 23.

They also released a photo report today from Wilayat al-Khayr.

http://justpaste.it/mrkakhr

Edit: New photo report from January 18,

http://justpaste.it/tlidh

it is staged. They are not even firing at rebels positions.

From the road look and the surrouding you can tell they are in this area and firing in direction of Jurf al Sakhri. The latter location is held by pro Assad force since the Castillo road was cut.

Credit to /u/passerby_me from /r/CombatFootage https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/52rn9x/another_angle_of_the_fight_that_occurred/

~~Possible~~ location of the fighting starting arround 6-45 and camera position

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.361292&lon=40.097641&z=17&gz=0;400951838;353600105;18452;0;4398;23842;26391;25592;29396;34559;0;33422;4720;24017;26391;25155;20598;436

Taking this ridgeline/hill was actually really important, because it overlooks most of the area(Al-Baghiliyah ) behind it as you can see in the last shot and on the map

edit im fairly certain now

It is of Islamic Relevance:

> The Last Hour would not come until the Romans land at al-A’maq or in Dabiq. An army consisting of the best (soldiers) of the people of the earth at that time will come from Medina (to counteract them).[6]

Their official magazine is named after the town.

Map.

Russia’s Troll Army Is Making Life Harder for US Spies.

(N.B. When Russia does it, it's called trolling. When the West does it, it's called 'Human Science Operations Cell'.)

Found an interesting game named 'Insurgency Sandstorm', sequel to one of my all time favourite shooters 'Insurgency', fairly realistic yet accessible squad based FPS.
More importantly, its storyline is centred around a woman, held captive by 'radical insurgents' (likely IS), until she escapes and joins something like the YPJ/Peshmerga. It'll be interesting to see how they handle the complexity of the war or if they'll ignore it completely It's going to be released in some form (unfinished) within the year on PC

found here

One of them came from Jablah (Lattakia) and another from Raqqa. The one from Raqqa joined the Free Syrian Army in the beginning. He then saw injustice committed by some of the rebel groups, joined Northern Sun Battalion and now fights for them in the SDF. He says that right now he is happy to fight because he feels like he is fighting for his people together with people from other ethnicities.

Location: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.466175&lon=36.194029&z=14&m=b&search=darayya

Militants' morale is down in damascus. Darayya was taken, East ghouta shrank to half its original size in a few months, saa advancing on every front it targets

This will encourage more of them to surrender&be transferred

Best I can do until someone who can speak Arabic translates, there is definitely more info in there I couldn't make sense of:

• The offender Jamil was fired by the JaT a month ago based on the ethical complaints made against him.

• The two individuals executed were married.

• Ziyad Jaafar (Abu Issam) and his wife Shirin.

• They were executed 1 km away from Jamel's home around the الشهباء (Shahba) area west of العلقمية (Alqamiyeh). I can't find Shahba but I did find Alqamiyeh.

• They were found in a remote house.

• According to this they were civilians.

Bdama and this hill: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.801247&lon=36.262093&z=12&m=b&show=/34570173/Ruwaysat-‘Alī-Būghā&search=Bayt

If both under SAA control, Insurgent remnants SW of Jisr al Shughour will have to retreat North since supply routes will be under SAA artillery fire.

Leith mentions that they've passed the railway, but disputes the full recapture. However, if you look at the map, past the railway pretty much means that the SAA holds 90 percent of the town.

Fought alongside Syrian Arab Army, National Defense Forces, Syrian Republican Guard's in both Hasakah and Deir Ez Zor

These Two Photo's are the last 2 photos taking of him (That I know of) Yesterday after capturing new points @ Ard Turdah "Mountain Turdah" جبال الثردة area - http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.241746&lon=40.110741&z=15&m=b&show=/33473528/Ard-Turdah-Mountain-Turdah-جبال-الثردة

• http://imgur.com/a/qSTbj

IS claims along with photos

It says there was an attack last night that lasted several hours, inflicting casualties on the enemy. Coalition airplanes struck SDF forces with three bombs. The IS fighters all returned home without any injury. No pics of them returning though. Or any of the battle.

Edit: This is reportedly from an attack on Qara Qawzaq which is east of the river.

A terrible, terrible loss for the regime. Look at all those helpless soldiers try to escape. Is that how you defend? Is that how you evacuate? Dude, at around 05:20, they're literally running through the desert being gunned down. They also seem to be without weapons. I am quite more convinced now that IS did capture around 200 soldiers at Tabqa.

EDIT: I haven't even watched the video until the end, take a look at this "evacuation", being filmed and shot at by IS:

http://pokit.org/get/img/a6cfab8945f37341ec14bce55342d573.jpg

Video link: "https://sendvid.com/embed/e0okaylr"

He declared Erdoğan as "traitor" and "taghut". FSA as "friends of secular Atatürk.", mentions "atheist" YPG as PKK and says Kemal Atatürk forced people laicism and to deny their religion. Claims Erdoğan is on path of Atatürk by enact laws other than Sharia and being friend to "crusaders", apostates and atheists.

Some quotes:

• Traitor Erdoğan sold Turkey to racist PKK militants and "crusaders"

• He caused of killing muslims of Levant by opening border to PKK and PKK-ally FSA. He opened up Turkey's airbases for "crusaders" to kill muslims of Levant and protect "atheist" PKK.

• You will see that "crusaders" will capture Western Turkey and PKK will capture Eastern Turkey and they'll start kill your children, rape you and steal your goods. (last part was unironically)

• Deny secularism, democracy, laws and "grave worshipers" (?).

• (Turkish people) should conquer Istanbul which Erdoğan tries to give to "crusaders" by the command of Abu Bakr Al-Big Daddy.

In last minutes of video, he calls muslims of Turkey to rise up against those "taghuts", atheists etc. and to support ISIS.

It needs to be mentioned that any group of RuAF military jets has flown to Latakia led by either a Tu-154 or Il-76 from their airfields. The "regular flight" (personal rotation, high officials,...,) Tu-154s and Il-62Ms indeed always go from Moscow to Latakia. An-124 heavy transport flights always go from Mozdok to Latakia. This flight not starting on the civil Moscow airport but from this military airfield makes it likely to be leading a group of military aircraft.

You're right. The area directly controlled by the Government is this area.

It would mean they're frontline is somewhere along this line, which would further indicate that earlier reports that these two towns were capture, are infact, true.

You accuse me of deflecting and the next thing you do is... an ad hominem attack? Your hypocrisy truly has no bounds.

And no, *my* country hasn't deployed anything anywhere. The salisbury investigation is a complete dumpster fire, and the UK backtracked on its claims and even deleted deleted the accusatory tweets towards Russia.

You know what the Novichok case reminds me? Of Saddam's WMDs, that *your* country accused him of producing, manufacturing a trove of false "evidence" in the process, and then used it to illegally invade the country. And that wasn't even "thirty years ago", so the "too old" excuse doesn't work here.

Yeah, so much evidence of Russian Putinbots =D All coming down to some astroturfing company in Petersburg that works exclusively on the Russian internet.

On the other hand, we have real leaks from UK and US agencies (thanks Snowden!) that show their plans on how to manipulate social media, etc: https://theintercept.com/2014/02/24/jtrig-manipulation/

as far as I can tell this is the location

And checking the recent Kobani map it looks like a marked spot where conflict was taking place so it would seem like the right one.

Saudis/US definitely cooking something and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has hinted at this in his recent speech which explains the preemptive mobilization against some of the rebels: Be patient and firm, and be cautious, for the enemies of Allah are mobilizing, thundering, increasing, and threatening the people of Mosul. We believe that their mobilization will be for Raqqah and Aleppo before Mosul. So be cautious.

> Somebody send me this website of Kurdish attrocities:

> http://justpaste.it/HashdPeshmerga

As far as I can see, that website (a) concerns only Iraq, (b) mixes pictures of all forces fighting against ISIS there, and (c) at least as far as Kurdish peshmerga are concerned only has pictures of distasteful treatment of the dead bodies of ISIS fighters who had been killed in combat.

These pictures do not depict anything one might call "Kurdish attrocities".

Christ, we're seeing the Northern rebel lines truely crumbling as we speak. Watansy is reporting that there is more to come as well. We might even already see a push moving South soon.

>According to the report, the airfield was used by Hasakeh’s Directorate of Agriculture for crop dusting and has been out of service since 2010.

i have been trying to find something that resembles their claims and is to the south or south-east of Rimelan. They might be talking about this place which is also close the to village called Al-Buthah which might be the same place the report calls Rimelan Al-Basha. Though it is a very short and dilapidated looking runway it is the only one i could find anywhere near the place they are talking about and maybe it is good enough for crop dusters.

edit: appartently somebody agrees with me because now there is a new tag on the area for an US Air base under construction

Location.

EDIT: Because I really don't have a lot of other shit to do I've made an outline of how the frontlines in Eastern Aleppo are likely to look around now.

> A revolution without dancing is not a revolution worth having.

• Emma Goldman

(actually a much longer quote, but that's the gist of it)

Dunno where you got that from.

This is the location of that photo: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.524510&lon=40.738624&z=15&m=b

It's 1.5kms north of the northernmost-SAA positions in Hasakah: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.512189&lon=40.743570&z=14&m=b&gz=0;407384204;365124990;36048;0;0;125541

Deep within the YPG's half of the city. SAA obviously never held that place.

Yes. You can. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.144091&lon=37.123988&z=18&m=b

Not the orchard with the road that cuts in its front, it matches the footage exactly at 0:12 - 0:14, the buildings, and the constructed rampart. It all matches.

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.145900&lon=37.119882&z=19&m=b

This is the half destroyed building seen at 0:22.

So yes. Its provable.

I'm having a really difficult time with geolocating this, but it may be this position here. It could also be here perhaps. Based on the building's shape, the terrain (pavement), and tree proximity it could be either one, but both are on the north side of the base and suggest that the government is inside.

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.277367&lon=40.175285&z=14&m=b&permpoly=20852254

Just look at the geography. The defenders of airbase are seeing the trucks coming and even if such a truck would made it to a barrier, it would cause only some damage to the barrier, but no soldiers would be killed. And the barrier can be fixed afterwards. And even if ISIS should manage to overrun the first line of defensives there is still a second and a third one to also overcome. Currently ISIS improved a little bit their strategic position, becasue they captured the missle batalion here: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.251963&lon=40.186186&z=15&m=b But you see it is still a long way...

To avoid economic collapse. The curve in the Lira is scary, especially because it's added to the already steep depreciation in the last few months over investor's distrust of Erdogan's economic vision.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=TRY&view=1Y

Twitter user @yarinah1 has been tracking ATGM launches in Syria since May. This month has been a record setting month. So far 78 ATGM launches have been recorded (62 were recorded in the first half of the month).

They've been keeping track of them on separate justpaste.it pages (along with video links for each shot).

Here is October's.

I think an interesting project would be to go through the past six months of data and collate the information and sort it by group, missile type, location, target type, and whether or not the target was hit/destroyed.

You butchered the information of the tweet.

Yusha Yuseef also said that the SAA has captured Tel al-Duwayr, east of Souran.

Location

Recent map for reference

As you can see it is East of the defensive walls. North west of the water body they were using as a buffer and previously rebel held. I'm not sure if this is true or not but entirely possible a successful counter attack occurred especially if rebels are really fighting among themselves (isn't an unusual claim and rather believable).

For those who were confused on first glance as I was, Angel city is Inkhil. Inkhil is just to the east of Jasim, held by the rebels, and south-west of Sanamayn, held by the government with the Brigade 15 military base close by.

edit: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.006936&lon=36.206131&z=11&m=b&show=/13167663/Inkhil

Markadah location

He also claims that the SDF accepted the wish of the Shaitat tribe to liberated their homelands all the way down at the northern shore of the Euphrates.

Confirimed by pro rebel map here, and location.

Location, this is the border crossing between Turkey and Idlib and coincidentally the main supply road of the rebels.

> Wow, if this map is accurate

It is not. Aleppo24 wrote that they reached a cemetery from the north which means it has to be one that you first reach from the north which would be this one. He just read cemetery and assumed it would be the large one in the city center.
Same happened a few days ago when there were reports about the SDF taking control of a hospital, while it was actually a small medical center in Qanāt ash Shaykh Tabash he just understood hospital and marked the National Hospital of Manbij.

My approach looks like that: http://i.imgur.com/UeFaqVy.jpg

Keep in mind that this is mostly desert roads, so looking in kilometers has to be nuanced, similar to when the SDF captured 400 sq km of sand it can often seem like a huge change yet it doesn't mean in terms of real gains.

~~Other than that this was captured recently by the government forces.~~ Wrong location, my bad.

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.489485&lon=38.178499&z=16&m=b&search=Al-Zaheriyah%20school

This is the right location of Bir Abu Al'Allaj.

"Experts told The Telegraph they have no reason to doubt that the video is real." - https://web.archive.org/web/20141112070143/http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11222420/Watch-Syrian-hero-boy-appears-to-brave-sniper-fire-to-rescue-terrified-girl-in-dramatic-video.html

I guess you can manipulate the media very easily. I mean if you asked a guy who visits /r/syriancivilwar or /r/combatfootage regularly , he would say it's clearly fake.

I don't think this article is true. The picture shows Siyasiyeh Bridge in Deir Ezzor. If I remember correctly, this bridge was destroyed last year. This is one of the bridges (both are destroyed) which leads into the daesh-controlled part of Deir Ezzor. Maybe daesh rebuilt it? I don't know... but I don't think they are able to do that.

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.340912&lon=40.155888&z=18&m=b&search=brigade%2066

Location.

'Sham Front' is presumably Jabhat al-Shamiyya, or what is sometimes (possibly incorrectly) called the Levantine Front.

'Sawran' is another transliteration of Soran, which is a small town near Mare, north of Aleppo.

IS captured most of Jaffra some weeks back and was able to reinforce isolated troops on Saqer Island (crossed the eastern river bank). SAA flanked coming from SW (Airport) and recaptured most of Jaffra again. After that, ISIS was forced to establish a new supply route - the fisheries. Here: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.313514&lon=40.193310&z=14&m=b&show=/32065716/Fisheries&search=Deir%20Ezzor However, Anafat bridge, and Aleesh garden are under SAA control already. If fisheries fall too, IS will be in big trouble there.

Next map will be a Saqer Island close up btw.

You do realize the world didn't freeze on February 17th, 2016?

And that American and British special forces have been in the ground for months before that piece was written and after it. And air strikes have been conducted there before and after it.

And that American air strikes have been targeting camps and convoys -even after that article was written. Many of these strikes have gained worldwide media recognition, so if you had googled "U.S. airstrike" you would have read about them.

So if the U.S. government is killing ISIS convoys, and in addition is the most efficient and effective government that is targeting and killing worldwide (a fact you should also know) - your argument that the U.S. is granting them safe passage is bizarre. Nonsensical, even.

I'm afraid to ask where you are from. But perhaps you should be turning to countries like Turkey and Belgium if you want to talk about "safe passage" for ISIS.

About the U.S., that dog won't hunt here. Why don't you take a deep breath and relax a bit.

They are blocking it by not demilitarize the roads connecting to it like the road from Kafr Hamra which is rebel controlled:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.258117&lon=37.093277&z=12&m=b

aid wouldnt be able to pass through safely.

This is just trolling of the IS by the YPG/YPJ.

Dabiq is for the Moslems the same as Armageddon for the Christs.

Armageddon = Har megiddo, the hill of the former town of Megiddo in Israel. The place around this hill, where the bad will collect the army and where the last of all battles will be performed, the good against the bad -> and the good will win. This is part of the Apokalypsis part of the bible.

Dabiq is the same. There the bad will attack the defending (good) and the defending forces will win. This is than the start of the end of the world and the Messias will later come and so on and so on...

So, if the YPG will bitterly defeat the IS in Dabiq, it is the prove, the end of the world is still far away....or so. By bad luck, even the IS do not really believe in it.....

But the name was important enough for them to name their IS Magazine "dabiq".

And as it is not so far awayr from Afrin: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36.540164&lon=37.268665&z=15&m=b

I simply don't like this mega thread style. There's too much content being mixed around from each section I'm losing track of what's new and what I have already looked at...

May I recommend the usual live updates you get on news websites or a minute-by-minute update as things come in, they just stack up, so I can recall the last point I was on and continue from there.. You can still catalogue and label your links if you wish to with something in brackets for example.

This is Tuz Khurmatu. When you click on the parts of the town you can see it's nicely organised in kurdish, turkmen and arab districts.

Jabal Al-Arba'een: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.942227&lon=37.161255&z=14&m=b&show=/25803951/Jabal-al-Arbaain&search=aleppo

Tal al-Bak'kar(not 100% sure): http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.928745&lon=37.084436&z=15&m=b&show=/10629522/Tall-Bakkarah&search=aleppo

Deir Hanna

http://wikimapia.org/m/#lat=35.6922411&lon=36.0179488&z=13&l=0&m=b

Daghemshalliyya

http://wikimapia.org/m/#lat=35.6946112&lon=36.0478179&z=13&l=0&m=b

Note: links only work on mobile

pure rebel propaganda. wear a tinfoil hat when reading. full of conspiracies and groundless predictions.

ISIS has been raiding this area from Aqaribat for a long time: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.098563&lon=37.464752&z=12&m=b&gz=0;372893142;350259198;1658248;0;2015304;146182;1768112;312010;1514053;157425;10299;972180;164794;969372;58364;868274;0;952523

ISIS front in Baiji collapsed, Mosul is in danger and their troops in Salahudin risk encirclement, in the North of Raqqah the Kurds are massing troops and equipment, in Aleppo the SAA is nearing Kweires. And what does ISIS do [according to rebels] they plan attacks Hama.

Tal Brak in wikimapia: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.675647&lon=41.042347&z=14&m=b

With the way things are going, I'd expect YPG would have taken it by tomorrow. I just hope that the archaeological site in Tal Brak hill doesn't get damaged from either YPG bombardment, Coalition airstrikes or if for some reason, IS spitefully destroyed archaeological site.

Great news! can't wait to get it verified and can't wait for the new maps.

This is one of the villages(Manaza)

Another one of the villages(Cikur)

The other two have not been identified on the map.(Al badur, Arbosh)

They will secure the Deir ez-Zor-Palmyra highway(M20 I think), anything else would be both pointless and counterproductive. Al-Shulah and al-Kabajb are the only villages they need to capture: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.131702&lon=39.774628&z=11&m=b

When they capture those 2 villages, the 400km highway from Damascus to Deir ez-Zor will be entirely in government hand and the government doesn't have to worry about IS advancing from Deir ez-Zor into Palmyra and then from Palmyra into Homs and Damascus.

Faith Campaign was not pro-Salafism, really. During the same time as the Campaign, Saddam denounced Wahhabism and killed/imprisoned Salafis who went too far in stirring up Sunni-Shiite hatred. Some good readings on this:

A Pedigree of Terror: The Myth of the Ba’athist Influence in the Islamic State Movement. It demonstrates that a lot of the alleged connections between Saddamist officers and Daesh are overblown or simply false. It also details the background of Daesh's top leaders; many of them (including Baghdadi himself) openly denounced and condemned Baathism and Saddam

Compulsion in Religion: Saddam Hussein, Islam, and the Roots of Insurgencies in Iraq. A full book on the topic, and goes beyond the public face of the Faith Campaign to the inner workings of Saddam's government

>The UN report on the investigation into the Ghouta chemical attacks was published on 16 September 2013. The report stated: "the environmental, chemical and medical samples we have collected provide clear and convincing evidence that surface-to-surface rockets containing the nerve agent sarin were used in Ein Tarma, Moadamiyah and Zamalka in the Ghouta area of Damascus."UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called the findings "beyond doubt and beyond the pale,” and clear evidence of a war crime. "The results are overwhelming and indisputable," he said. Ban stated a majority of the blood samples, environmental samples and rockets or rocket fragments recovered tested positive for sarin. The report, which was "careful not to blame either side," said that during the mission's work in areas under rebel control, "individuals arrived carrying other suspected munitions indicating that such potential evidence is being moved and possibly manipulated." The UN investigators were accompanied by a rebel leader:

>A leader of the local opposition forces ... was identified and requested to take 'custody' of the Mission ... to ensure the security and movement of the Mission, to facilitate the access to the most critical cases/witnesses to be interviewed and sampled by the Mission and to control patients and crowd in order for the Mission to focus on its main activities

https://www.scribd.com/doc/168625769/U-N-report-on-the-alleged-use-of-chemical-weapons-in-Syria

Just in case.

1 Km left, and not a single road. This is going to be interesting, especially when (or if), the School building is going to be captured.

Look at the size of Ash Shaata. There are literally two or three structures in the entire town that haven't been razed. You either hold that or you don't, there's not nearly enough to contest 'large parts' of it between two sides. Not a chance this is accurate.

Smart men would put spotters on this nearby tall

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=37.013485&lon=41.159412&z=19&m=b

and link him with mortar squads in vicinity which would shell the tarmac is any plane or heli attempted to land.

I still think Tabqa is just a decoy, and that they'll go for the Ba'th dam instead.

if they go to Tabqa, they'll still need to fight for the Hunaydah/Ba'th dam. if they go for the dam directly, they'd sever Tabqa from Raqqa, forcing ISIS to withdraw from Tabqa if they dont want to get stranded on the west bank.

tabqa is probably flooded with IEDs by now,... Hunaydah probably not as much.

how I see http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.797766&lon=38.629303&z=11&m=b&gz=0;385764312;356335814;171661;0;926971;61386;1737213;362668;1881408;2357179;1448822;2668717;185394;2696526;0;2468456

and here's a little observation:

Tabqa airbase has no imediate strategic value. It's value is of logistical value, but only after the town has been secured, since any aircraft landing at the base would be in danger of getting shot down (at kwieiris they had to create a 4km safety zone, and at DEZ, planes stopped flying once the ISIS artilery got in range of the base)

hence I believe that the benefit of securing Hunaydah first much outways that of Tabqa. othervise, even if they secure the base, they wouldnt acomplish much till they've taken the town.

another counter arguement for Tabqa, is that while they are attacking it, they'd be exposed to counter attacks from the west, south and east(Hunaydah).

but if they go for Hunaydah/Ba'th first... they'd only be exposed only from the west(Tabqa), since east/south is the desert, and north is Euphrates

Gvenah (Ajguennah): http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.456084&lon=38.113461&z=13&m=bs

Al Arandas (با دارت العراندس ): http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.446073&lon=38.118525&z=14&m=bs

Pro-rebel Twitter source reported that the strikes took place here, which is pretty close to the active front lines around Marj al Sultan. Alloush often "leads from the front", so that's probably what he was doing at that air defense base.

I consider Yezidis to be Kurds, Lurs not, though I respect diverting self-identifications. Yezidis seem divided on that matter, but for the larger part of their history were considered as Kurds. Good books that explain their early history in the Middle Ages are 'The Yezidis: The History of a Community, Culture and Religion', and 'The Yezidis: A Study in Survival'.

There's a similar area in Khanasser which's called qanat romaniyah. This is what I found:

>Some management of the area goes back to more ancient times, notably to the Byzantine period. One finds traces of the vestiges of this time everywhere in the two tablelands, and also on the plain of Khanasser that separates them. Remains can be found of hydraulic works, notably the qanat (underground gallery), called locally: qanat romaniyah. These ensured food for the city of Khanasser through means of irrigation. They are currently dry, mainly due to the intensification of wells on the plain in the 1950s and to the effects of a long period of drought that Syria experienced between 1955 and 1960. https://www.academia.edu/21665140/Earthen_Domes_et_Habitats._Villages_of_Northern_Syria._An_architectural_tradition_shared_by_East_and_West

I guess the Raqqawi Romaniyah has similar story.

Wrong – you just paint them like other anti-Iran people do to the SAA or the Houthis as artificial Iranian cut-outs when in fact they are real and organic popular organizations.

The power lines from other two videos, and the small stone wall suggests it is this location. I could be wrong but I see the com tower, the power lines and the small stone wall in the video which appear in this map:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.749699&lon=36.373919&z=17&m=b

This is a big loss for opposition forces. ISIS fighters in a convoy of roughly 100 cars captured the village yesterday resulting in up to a hundred dead and missing among the rebel forces in all.ISIS have now cut the rebels last supply line between Jordon and eastern Qalamoun, all the others are controlled by the government.Opposition forces are claiming that the rebel brigade Jaish Tahrir a-Sham reportedly facilitated IS's entry into the mountainous region. Jaish Tahrir a-Sham had recently announced the Darb al-Nawasi battle against government forces in eastern Qalamoun managing to take a number of checkpoints and cutting the Damascus-Baghdad highway. It has been repeatedly claimed that Jaish Tahrir al-Sham had connections to ISIS and there had been rumours that its leader, Firas al-Baitar, had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State.Rebel forces have now lost all the areas they gained from ISIS in the last four to five months.Urgent meeting to be held today to figure out what to do next.

Maps: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34.059273&lon=37.219620&z=15&m=b&search=%D9%85%D8%AD%D8%B3%D8%A9

http://umap.openstreetmap.fr/fr/map/desyracuse-syria-civil-war-21-april-2015_37133#10/33.9542/37.4496

> The SAA Central Command has recently targeted this area of the As-Sweida Governorate in order to recapture the town of Al-Lajat on the borders of the Dara’a and Rif Dimashq Governorates.

This is very interesting. This is a reference to this this area an is currently hold by Rebel forces. The fact that the SAA is focussing on the strategy of removing salients within the front line, probably since they need a lot more manpower, is significant IMO.

damn, that was fast. that would indicated the last supply line is cut. Guess this will promp a fierce rebel counter. :)

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=ar&lat=36.248353&lon=37.172670&z=17&m=b&search=halab

Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Kuwait... That's just in the middle east.

https://ipfs.io/ipfs/QmXoypizjW3WknFiJnKLwHCnL72vedxjQkDDP1mXWo6uco/wiki/List_of_authoritarian_regimes_supported_by_the_United_States.html

Hi Elliot, thank you for doing this AMA.

I first got interested in your work through C.J. Chivers. Your scoop on the Croatian weapons appearing in Syria was a great piece of work.

I've been following your blog ever since, and ended up referencing your work and the work of those you featured on the blog in my thesis on the al Qaeda/ IS split (link below).

My question is, what you noticed about Jabhat al Nusra's response to the declaration of the Caliphate? Since the Caliphate was announced, have you noticed that JN has lost significant amounts of influence/power?

Thanks, and keep up the great work.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7OZ6xN2Gru1Z1JMNk5jdUw3aTg/edit?usp=sharing

Handarat Camp (map on Wikimapia) started off as a refugee camp for Palestinian refugees. Over the decades, it grew into a permanent neighbourhood in Aleppo. A poor, densely packed neighbourhood.

It's strategic value is a few things, its on high ground overlooking Mallah farms and much of the surrounding area (so secures that area). It's also the Northern approach into Aleppo city proper. I've heard will also be helpful in opening supply lines for the Northern Aleppo presence.

Huge numbers of Palestinians were forced to flee when Jihadists seized the camp several years ago. So could mean 10's thousands can return to their homes.

Liwa al Quds one of the main militias (a Palestinian militia) is comprised of men who had to leave Handarat and been several attempts to retake it (some very costly).

Ha! They got the icecream factory! No more icecream, that's a big hit to morale, I am sure there will soon be a lot of activity in the Bustan Al Qasr corridor.

I assume those factories are all in this area, right?

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.279569&lon=37.195952&z=16&m=b&show=/32125000/Handarat-Industrial-Zone

Another one:

> (Pro Kurdish) Ara News says Jaish al-Thuwar & Jaish al-Shimal (from SDF) captured Tell al-Qarah & Tell Hosh in north Aleppo

here.

The military college north of Sheikh Najjar is a major ISIS military point (though not as major as it used to be for rebels). If SDF clears out ISIS from north of Sheikh Najjar it will probably free up a bunch of SAA troops.

It would be this area here.

The description would fit to Sijaraz, I don't know any village named Shat though.

Sijaraz is here: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.576456&lon=37.024312&z=15&m=b&show=/26140159/Sijaraz

I think they are trying to widen the buffer zone whilst advance for Manbij at the same time, but progress is slow. Yesterday they captured these two villages

Most of the population though is concentrated around the town of Afrin, which is situated in a valley that is easily accessible from Azaz. I think people are underestimating the damage that ISIS can do and overestimating the defense that the terrain in other locales and on other fronts provides.

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.548535&lon=36.939812&z=12&m=b

You can see here the valley and road leading straight from Azaz to Afrin.

Only this area until they meet.

EDIT: /u/CizireCanton, what does the dotted line stand for?

With all the authority vested in me by my armchair, Mahajjah just to the north seems more logical. The rebels took the last checkpoint to the west of the town a couple weeks ago, and seizing it would cut the highway to Deraa, Izra and everything south of Mahajjah.

Then again, the Southern Front seems more focused on mopping up other strongpoints and holdouts further south rather than focusing on cutting off Deraa. Perhaps they're attempting to copy Jaysh al-Fiteh's successes in Idlib, which maintained corridors for the SAA to retreat though, largely avoiding protracted urban combat.

One question, Al-Tanmiyah is here:

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.689914&lon=36.331412&z=17&m=b

So if they did not capture Al-Ziyarah which is here: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.690180&lon=36.337688&z=17&m=b

How did they get to Al-Tanmiyah? Just humor me.